行业周报:白酒底部布局,兼顾成长型标的-20251109
KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-11-09 07:43

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is entering a layout phase, with the snack segment being the preferred choice for consumer goods. The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 0.6% from November 3 to November 7, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.4 percentage points. The processed food (+2.3%), baked goods (+1.7%), and meat products (+0.8%) sectors performed relatively well. The food and beverage sector has significantly underperformed the market since the beginning of 2025 due to changes in consumer environment and market style. Factors include the impact of alcohol bans, pressure on household income expectations, and a noticeable shift of funds towards technology sectors. The current underlying logic of the sector indicates that the fundamentals are nearing a bottom, with recovery expectations gradually warming up. The negative impacts on the industry have largely been released, and the marginal effects of alcohol bans are slowing down. Some companies are actively reducing supply to achieve a balance between supply and demand, alleviating channel pressures and releasing channel risks. Strengthened policy expectations are boosting demand in related consumption areas. The fundamentals are at a bottom, and the sector's valuation has dropped to a low point, with fund holdings in food and beverage remaining at a low level, indicating a relatively good chip structure. Therefore, there is no need for pessimism at this stage. Looking ahead to 2026, the main theme for the food and beverage industry is a recovery from the bottom, with the pace and strength of recovery being closely related to macroeconomic conditions. It is expected that consumer resilience will be maintained, and increased economic activity will boost business consumption [4][12][13]. Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoints - The liquor sector is entering a layout phase, with the snack segment being the preferred choice for consumer goods. The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 0.6% from November 3 to November 7, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.4 percentage points. The processed food (+2.3%), baked goods (+1.7%), and meat products (+0.8%) sectors performed relatively well [12][14]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index declined by 0.6%, ranking 25th out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 1.4 percentage points. Leading individual stocks included Anji Food, Huifa Food, and Barbie Food, while Jinzi Ham, Jiu Gui Jiu, and Gu Qing Gong Jiu saw significant declines [14][19]. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder at GDT auction was $3,503 per ton, down 3.0% month-on-month and 5.7% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram, down 0.3% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year [19][21]. Liquor Industry News - The launch of the 2025 special edition of Langpai Lang was announced, with a suggested retail price of 299 yuan per bottle. The product features classic packaging elements and is limited in availability. Additionally, significant growth in white liquor sales was reported during the Double 11 shopping event, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye seeing year-on-year increases exceeding 100% [47][48]. Recommended Portfolio - The recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Bairun Shares. Guizhou Moutai is focusing on sustainable development despite short-term demand pressures. Shanxi Fenjiu has high mid-term growth certainty. Ximai Food is expanding rapidly in new channels, while Weilong Delicious is stabilizing its base with new product launches. Bairun Shares is improving its pre-mixed liquor trends [5][54].