白糖：关注政策变化

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The international sugar market is expected to be weak with oscillations. The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is predicted to have a restorative increase in production, and the market is bearish in the long - term. The accelerated crushing progress in central - southern Brazil and the expected significant increase in India's sugar production will lead to a weakening trend in New York raw sugar [3][29]. - The domestic sugar market faces a situation of weak reality. Although the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase steadily, the decline in the sugar yield rate in Guangxi will likely raise production costs. Zhengzhou sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and trading revolves around the import rhythm. Attention should be paid to changes in import policies [3][29]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 99.55 (previous value 98.73), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.36 (previous value 5.38) [1][5]. - Crude oil: The WTI crude oil price is $59.84 per barrel, a decrease of 1.71% [1][5]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The active contract price of New York raw sugar is 14.13 cents per pound, a decrease of 2.01%. The spot price of Guangxi Group is 5760 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from last week. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5457 yuan per ton, down 26 yuan from last week, and the basis of the main contract has increased significantly. CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 1120 million tons, consumption will be 1590 million tons, and imports will be 500 million tons [11]. - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 7382 sheets [12]. - CFTC latest position report (New York raw sugar): As of September 23, long positions of funds decreased by 3754 lots, short positions increased by 18708 lots, and net long positions decreased by 22462 lots year - on - year to - 151598 lots, with a significant reduction in net long positions (suspension of release) [12]. 2.2 Industry Supply and Demand Data - Global supply and demand: ISO predicts a supply shortage of 488 million tons in the 24/25 season and 23 million tons in the 25/26 season [17]. - Brazil: As of October 16, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushed in central - southern Brazil was 525 million tons, a decrease of 2.78% year - on - year; sugar production was 36.02 million tons, an increase of 0.89% year - on - year; alcohol production was 25.04 billion liters, a decrease of 8.23% year - on - year; and the cumulative ratio of sugar - used cane was 52.36%, compared with 48.74% in the same period last year [17]. - India: As of May 15, in the 24/25 season, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 5.8 million tons year - on - year. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 season will be 34.35 million tons (previous value 34.9 million), of which ethanol will consume 3.4 million tons, and the net sugar production will be 30.95 million tons; in the 24/25 season, it was 29.5 million tons (with a net sugar production of 26.1 million tons) [17]. - Thailand: In the 24/25 season, Thailand produced 10.08 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.27 million tons year - on - year [18]. - China: CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons (+100,000 tons), and imports will be 5 million tons. Customs data shows that in September 2025, 550,000 tons of sugar were imported, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 4.63 million tons (-120,000 tons) [18]. 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: Be cautious about the weakening trend of New York raw sugar and pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm, as well as India's production and relevant industrial policies [3][29]. - Domestic market: Focus on changes in import policies, especially considering the impact of import rhythm on Zhengzhou sugar prices [3][29].