棉花：近期预计维持窄幅区间震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton lacks upward momentum and is affected by the weakening risk appetite in the US financial market and concerns about US cotton exports. Attention should be paid to the USDA's monthly supply - demand report on November 14. Domestic cotton futures show narrow - range fluctuations. With the end of seed cotton procurement, the market focus returns to supply and demand. Currently, there is no new upward driver for cotton futures and spot prices. In the short term, the large - scale listing of new cotton and strong hedging intentions of ginning factories limit the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures, while high basis and relatively low absolute prices support it, which may be more obvious closer to the delivery month. So, it is judged that Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a volatile trend [1][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Contract: Open price was 65.85 cents/lb, high was 66.04 cents/lb, low was 63.52 cents/lb, close was 63.55 cents/lb, down 2.01 cents/lb or 3.07%. Volume was 171,365 lots, an increase of 18,228 lots. Open interest was 130,046 lots, a decrease of 12,147 lots [4] - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract: Open price was 13,590 yuan/ton, high was 13,640 yuan/ton, low was 13,455 yuan/ton, close was 13,580 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.11%. Volume was 966,651 lots, an increase of 87,190 lots. Open interest was 576,279 lots, a decrease of 1,862 lots [4] - Cotton Yarn Main Contract: Open price was 19,855 yuan/ton, high was 19,950 yuan/ton, low was 19,710 yuan/ton, close was 19,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.13%. Volume was 57,764 lots, a decrease of 7,615 lots. Open interest was 25,042 lots, an increase of 1,616 lots [4] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: It gave back the gains of the past two weeks and fell back to around 63.5 cents/lb, affected by the weakening risk appetite in the US financial market and persistent concerns about US cotton exports [5] - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA's weekly export sales data stopped being issued [6] - Other Major Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: Seed cotton listing volume is still less than the same period last year. Cotton fields in many states are affected by rainfall, and the moisture content of recently arrived cotton is high, not meeting the purchase standards of the Cotton Corporation of India. The estimated daily arrival of seed cotton is 69,000 - 93,000 bales, lower than the previous year [7] - Brazil: The area of new - season main - producing areas may decline. The IMEA maintains the cotton production forecast for the state of Mato Grosso in the 2025/26 season at 2.62 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous season, but the planting area is expected to be 1.46 million hectares (a 5.7% decrease). Due to rising production costs and low lint prices, farmers' planting willingness is insufficient. The soybean sowing progress is behind that of 2024, and uneven rainfall may affect crop growth and the planting window of second - season cotton [7] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand is very limited. The estimated cotton production this year is about 6.5 - 7 million bales. Most factories focus on domestic cotton procurement, and many spinning enterprises choose to wait and see. Domestic yarn demand has not improved, and factories face liquidity problems. Yarn export business is also sluggish [8] - Bangladesh: In October, clothing exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Cotton import trade was moderate this week, and spinning enterprises actively replenished stocks. However, the yarn and textile industries still face problems such as unstable energy supply, weak demand, and narrow profit margins. The upcoming general election may cause turmoil and affect business operations and export orders. The impact of the cargo fire at Dhaka Airport in October is still ongoing [9] - Turkey: Cotton import demand is average. Yarn enterprises are under continuous operating pressure, with some operating rates dropping to 50%. Yarn orders grow slowly, and currently, spinning enterprises generally purchase cotton only according to recent demand. In September, raw cotton imports were more than 53,000 tons, a 32% decrease from August but a 23% increase from the same period last year. Exports from August - September were 21,000 tons, a 26% year - on - year increase [11] - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Operating Rates: As of the week of November 7, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 61%, and 65% respectively [11] 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Spot Price: It is basically stable, and low - basis transactions are good. There is still pressure on the spot market, and some cotton merchants have lowered the spot basis. The mainstream basis range is stable, but low - basis offers have increased [12] - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of November 7, there were 3,013 registered warehouse receipts and 1,559 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 4,572 receipts, equivalent to 192,024 tons [13] - Downstream Situation: The pure - cotton yarn market is not in a typical off - season. This week, the demand for varieties is clearly differentiated, with the demand for air - jet spun low - count yarn weakening and that for high - tight 40 - count and high - count yarns being okay. Overall, Xinjiang orders are better than those in the inland. Cotton yarn prices fluctuate, and the overall price center changes little. The overall operating rate has increased slightly, and the inventory remains stable. The theoretical cash flow of spinning enterprises has improved. The sales atmosphere in the cotton greige fabric market has improved in some areas, shipments have increased, and factory inventories have decreased. Export orders have increased in inquiries, but it is still waiting for order confirmation. The market confidence is still insufficient [14] 3.3. Basic Data Charts - Charts include Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving enterprises' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory (weekly), cotton yarn enterprises' operating rate (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' operating rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18] 3.4. Operation Suggestions - Maintain the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will be in a volatile trend [19]