反弹将至or仍未触底？棕榈油本轮下跌回顾与未来展望

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for palm oil is "Volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end of the current decline in palm oil prices depends on four factors: whether the October MPOB data meets market expectations, the improvement of India's palm oil procurement, the production prospects in the producing areas from November to December, and the possibility of the implementation of biofuel policies in Indonesia and the United States [3] - The logic supporting the medium - to long - term rise of palm oil still exists, but short - term supply pressure is prominent. The upside space for the 01 contract is limited, while the 05 contract may present long - position opportunities and P2601 - P2605 reverse spread opportunities [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 10 - Month Palm Oil Price Decline Review 1.1 The Beginning of the Current Decline: Unexpected Inventory Accumulation of Malaysian Palm Oil in September - After the double - festival holiday in October, the palm oil price showed a strong rebound trend, but the MPOB September report on October 10th showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory reached 2360000 tons, far exceeding market expectations and hitting a 21 - month high [2][13] - In terms of production, the decline in production in the Malay Peninsula was offset by the increase in production in Sabah and Sarawak. In terms of exports, affected by the export tax adjustment in Indonesia and Argentina, and the substitution of soybean oil, Malaysia's overall export situation was not ideal. In terms of apparent demand, it is speculated that the large - scale inventory accumulation may be due to increased smuggling from Indonesia to Malaysia [14][15] 1.2 The Core of the Current Decline: Weaker - than - expected Reality and the Weakening of Strong Future Expectations - The continuous negative data of Malaysian palm oil and the lack of confidence in future strong expectations accelerated the decline. The MPOA's forecast of a more than 10% increase in production from October 1 - 20 far exceeded market expectations, and the decline in export data further increased the inventory pressure [18][22] - Indonesian data and policies also exacerbated the bearish sentiment in the market. Although the review of illegal plantations in Indonesia may affect future production, the current production data has not shown a negative impact. The market is also divided on the implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy [25][27] Palm Oil Price Outlook for the Future: Rebound Imminent or Not Yet at the Bottom? Short - Term Outlook - Key factors include the difference between the MPOB data and market expectations and whether November data shows an increasing production trend. If the data meets expectations, prices may stop falling and stabilize; if it is better than expected, there may be a limited rebound; if it is worse than expected, prices may continue to fall [32] - In terms of supply, it is expected that the production of Malaysian palm oil in November will decline slightly following normal seasonal changes. In terms of demand, India and Pakistan's restocking demand and Indonesia's B40 implementation progress need to be focused on [32][38][41] Long - Term Outlook - The core drivers are Indonesia's B50 policy and the US biofuel policy. If Indonesia's B50 policy is implemented in the second half of 2026, the increase in palm oil demand is expected to be 200000 - 300000 tons. Whether the upside space can be opened depends on the balance between production and biofuel demand [46][50] Investment Strategies and Suggestions - Short - term: Pay attention to the MPOB report and November high - frequency data. After the bearish sentiment in the market subsides, focus on the opportunity of a small - scale rebound, but the space is expected to be limited. If the data is more bearish than expected, consider short - selling opportunities for the 01 contract, with a support level of 8200 yuan [51] - Medium - to long - term: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas, restocking in the consuming areas, and biofuel policies of relevant countries. Consider long - position opportunities for the 05 contract during the Ramadan trading period from the end of the fourth quarter to the beginning of the first quarter of next year [51]