金银周报-20251109

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, London gold fell 0.43%, and London silver fell 0.54%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 81.7 the previous week to 82.1. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.83%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.11% (2 - year 3.55%), and the US dollar index was 99.54. The precious metals market was in a volatile state with unclear drivers, and the upcoming December FOMC meeting of the Fed is facing a difficult decision - making situation in an information vacuum. The government shutdown is a key factor, and the swing between risk - off and risk - on will determine the market trend next week [6]. - Gold is in a high - level adjustment, and silver's volatility is determined by market risk preference. The strength - weakness analysis shows that gold is neutral, and silver is neutral. The price ranges are 890 - 950 yuan/gram for gold and 11000 - 11700 yuan/kilogram for silver [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Spread - Gold: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract fell to - 7.51 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was 12.6 US dollars/ounce [12]. - Silver: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract rose to 0.101 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.21 US dollars/ounce [15]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Spread - Gold: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was - 3.62 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [19]. - Silver: This week, the silver spot - futures spread was - 4 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spread - Gold: This week, the gold monthly spread was 7.56 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [28]. - Silver: This week, the silver monthly spread was 54 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [31]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - For gold (buy TD and sell Shanghai gold, buy Shanghai gold December and sell June), the total costs are 2.91 yuan/gram and 15.17 yuan/gram respectively [34][35]. - For silver (buy TD and sell Shanghai silver, buy Shanghai silver December and sell June), the total costs are 37.53 yuan/kilogram and 178.15 yuan/kilogram respectively [36][37]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Direction - This week, in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, gold's deferred fee was mainly paid from long to short, indicating strong delivery power, while silver's was mainly paid from short to long, indicating strong receiving power [38]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - Inventory Ratio - Gold: This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.44 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.4%. Gold futures inventory increased by 1.8 tons [40][44]. - Silver: This week, COMEX silver inventory decreased by 72.25 tons to 14993 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 34%. Silver futures inventory decreased to 42 tons, and the SGE silver inventory decreased by 24 tons to 830 tons [42][44]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Position - This week, COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long position in gold increased slightly, while that in silver decreased slightly [46]. 3.1.8 ETF Position - Gold: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 1.71 tons [52]. - Silver: This week, the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 101.18 tons [54]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio rose from 81.7 last week to 82.1 [56]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rate - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 4.7% [58]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rate - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [63].