国泰君安期货·原油周度报告-20251109

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - side of the crude oil market features a tug - of - war between "active contraction" and "passive growth". OPEC+ is cutting production, while non - OPEC+ countries are the main source of supply growth. The market is in a "tight balance" state, and its stability depends on OPEC+'s policy determination [6]. - The demand side shows "slowing growth and structural differentiation". The growth engine of global demand is shifting from China to emerging economies like India and Southeast Asia. Long - term energy transition policies suppress fossil fuel demand. The growth momentum of demand is weakening [7]. - Precautions should be taken against further price drops. Brent and WTI may test the lows before April at the end of this year or early next year, and may even reach $50 per barrel. The decline of SC may be less than that of foreign benchmarks. The medium - to - long - term decline of oil prices is not likely to happen overnight. Attention should be paid to potential reversals in macro - expectations, which may amplify oil price fluctuations [7]. Summary by Directory Overview - The supply side is characterized by OPEC+ cuts and non - OPEC+ growth. The demand side shows slowing growth and is driven by emerging economies. The report warns of potential further price drops and suggests that Brent, WTI may test previous lows [6][7]. - The logic behind the view includes factors such as the impact of sanctions on Russian oil, geopolitical premium risks, lack of clear利好 from the Sino - US APEC meeting, continuous OPEC+ production increases, and rising oil - shipping freight rates [8]. - The valuation of oil is at a medium level in the short term. Strategies include holding short - position bands for unilateral trading, holding or clearing long - term spreads for inter - period trading, and expecting marginal reversals in EFS spreads and SC - Dubai spreads for inter - commodity trading [9]. Macroeconomics - The gold - oil ratio is stable. Attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate has weakened slightly, and social financing has declined [25][31][33]. Supply - OPEC's production cut decisions and implementation progress are detailed, including different rounds of cuts and their adjustment plans. In September, the production increase completion rate of OPEC8 was 80%, about 1 million barrels per day. OPEC's maritime exports increased significantly in September but declined in October [35][37][38]. - The production and export situations of various OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ countries are presented, such as the high production of US shale oil, the increasing production of emerging oil - producing countries like Guyana and Brazil, and the impact of sanctions on Russian oil [6][10][11]. Demand - The refinery operating rates in the US and Europe have declined, and the operating rate of China's major refineries has dropped significantly. The "Rizhao Port Incident" may have a continuous impact. Global refinery capacity is changing, with some new projects and closures [76][79]. Inventory - US commercial inventories are stable, and the inventory in Cushing is still significantly lower than the historical average. European diesel inventories are rebounding, and gasoline is being destocked. Domestic refined - oil profit margins are declining [81][86][88]. Price and Spreads - High freight rates continue to pressure the global crude oil spot market. Different regions have different market situations, such as weak trading in the Middle East, active bookings of American and Brazilian crude oil in Asia, and low physical trading activity in the North Sea [93]. - North American basis spreads are rebounding, month - spreads are slightly rebounding, SC valuation is at a medium - low level and month - spreads are stable, and net long positions are rebounding [101][102][105].