锌产业链周度报告：有色及贵金属组季先飞-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc market shows a situation of supply reduction and weak demand, with prices fluctuating widely, and the strength - weakness analysis is neutral [2] - Domestic supply side has obvious production cuts, while the consumption side enters the off - season, and the zinc price shows an oscillatory performance this week. The export window is expected to remain open, and there is a certain profit - loss ratio for internal - external reverse arbitrage, but it takes time to realize [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Price: Last week, the closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract was 22,720, with a weekly increase of 1.63%; the night - session closing price was 22,575, with a decrease of 0.64%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 3066.5, with a weekly increase of 0.54% [6] - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 87,261, a decrease of 6303 compared with the previous week; the open interest was 112,510, a decrease of 3899 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 7690, a decrease of 1228 compared with the previous week; the open interest was 221,416, a decrease of 819 compared with the previous week [6] - Inventory: SHFE Zinc warehouse receipts inventory increased by 1494 to 69,268; SHFE Zinc total inventory decreased by 3208 to 100,208; social inventory decreased by 2800 to 158,700; LME zinc inventory decreased by 400 to 34,900; bonded area inventory decreased by 400 to 3800 [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [8] - Profit: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at the historical median. Mine enterprise profits have rebounded to the historical median, smelting profits have declined to the historical median, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable at a relatively low level in the same period [10][11] - Operating rate: The smelting operating rate has declined, and the downstream operating rate is at a low - to - medium level in history. Zinc concentrate operating rate has rebounded to the historical median in the same period, refined zinc operating rate has declined to a high level in the historical same period, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates have rebounded to a low - to - medium level in history [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspect - Spot: The spot premium in Guangdong and Tianjin shows weak performance. Overseas premium is differentiated this week, with a slight increase in Singapore premium and a slight rebound in LME CASH - 3M. SHFE Zinc maintains a C structure, but there are certain changes in the far end [16][17][19] - Inventory: This week shows a slight inventory reduction, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a rebound in total inventory, a significant decline in the cancelled warrant ratio to a historical low level. The bonded area inventory has decreased slightly this week, and the global visible zinc inventory has decreased slightly [23][27][29] - Futures: The domestic open interest is at the median level in the historical same period [30] 3.4 Supply - Zinc concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has rebounded, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has decreased significantly. The ore arrival volume is at a low level, and the smelter raw material inventory has decreased [33][34] - Refined zinc: Smelting production has rebounded to a high level in the historical same period, smelter finished product inventory has decreased to a high level in the historical same period, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [41] - Recycled zinc raw materials: No specific summary information is available in the text 3.5 Zinc Demand - Downstream processing materials: The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, the downstream monthly operating rate has declined slightly, mostly at a low - to - medium level in the historical same period [52][55] - End - users: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [69] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity have certain fluctuations, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters is affected by these factors [71][72][74]