铸造铝合金产业链周报-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy continued to strengthen, breaking through the 21,000 mark during the week and reaching a record high since listing. Considering the end - of - year car purchase tax discount policy expiration, consumer enthusiasm for car - buying will remain high, and car sales are expected to improve further. In the short - term, the price may fluctuate, but in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to rise [2]. - The waste aluminum production is at a high level, and the social inventory is decreasing. The import of waste aluminum is also at a high level with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [16][19]. - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been slightly adjusted upwards, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum shows fluctuations. The weekly and monthly operating rates of cast aluminum alloy have declined [31][41]. - Terminal consumption: Fuel vehicles are in the year - end sales push stage, which will be transmitted to the die - casting consumption [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The price of cast aluminum alloy continued to strengthen this week, breaking through 21,000 during the week and reaching a record high since listing. As of November 7, the combined inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social inventories increased by 0.05 million tons to 13.27 million tons compared with the previous week, and the visible inventory remained at a high level [2]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2511.shf and AD2512.shf contracts, the futures prices are 20,925 and 20,930 respectively, with a spread of 5. The fixed cost is 4.76 yuan/ton, and the floating cost is 0.00 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 5 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy is 20,900 yuan/ton. Considering various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and handling fees, the warehouse receipt cost is 21,117.8 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Waste Aluminum - The waste aluminum production is at a high level, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. The import of waste aluminum is at a high level, and the year - on - year growth rate remains relatively fast. For example, in September 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 155,400 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 17.69% [16][19]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been slightly adjusted upwards, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum shows fluctuations. The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly and monthly operating rates of cast aluminum alloy have declined. The production of recycled aluminum alloy in October was 645,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.01%. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of waste aluminum, and currently it is around the break - even point. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [31][41][47][52][57]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Fuel vehicles are in the year - end sales push stage, which will be transmitted to the die - casting consumption. In October, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.387 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 19.395 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9% [2][66].