国泰君安期货锡周报-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for tin is neutral, with a price range of 270,000 - 286,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, tin prices rebounded slightly and showed a volatile weekly performance. The domestic tin inventory increased after the smelters resumed production, and the LME inventory also increased. The overseas spot premium declined, while the operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces in China rebounded, maintaining around 70% this week. The domestic spot premium increased slightly. Overall, the tin fundamentals remained stable without significant changes. Due to the growing concerns about the AI bubble, tin, as a metal that benefits from demand, may also be affected by market sentiment. In the short - term, the tin price fundamentals lack a clear direction and are more likely to fluctuate following macro - economic guidance. Attention should be paid to the potential risks of price decline due to the US government shutdown and the US third - quarter earnings reports [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was 30 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 500 yuan/ton. The overseas premium declined, and the premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan regions narrowed [9][10][15] 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [19] 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, the domestic social inventory of tin increased by 349 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 73 tons. The LME inventory increased by 160 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants dropped to 4.61% [25][30] 3.1.4 Capital - As of this Friday, the settled capital for Shanghai tin was 190.483 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in an outflow direction [35] 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin decreased slightly, while the open interest increased slightly. The trading volume of LME tin rebounded slightly, and the open interest continued to rise [37][42] 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin rebounded slightly [47] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In July 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In September 2025, the import volume was 8,714 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68% and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 26.11%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level of tin ore rebounded slightly [51][52] 3.2.2 Smelting - In September 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 10,510 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 69.13%, a slight rebound from last week [57][59] 3.2.3 Import - In September 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 1,269 tons, exports were 1,640 tons, and the net exports were 1,748 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 676 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 15,453 yuan/ton [65] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption Volume - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 10,031 tons, and the actual consumption was 12,302 tons [73] 3.3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fees declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises rebounded by 784.8% in September. The output and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises declined slightly in July [76] 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In September 2025, the output of end - user products showed mixed performance. The monthly output of integrated circuits, electronics, and smartphones rebounded. In the home appliance sector, the output of air conditioners rebounded, and the output of color TVs and washing machines increased slightly. The home appliance and new energy consumption showed a month - on - month rebound. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, showing a synchronous performance with tin prices [83][85][90]