外汇期货周度报告：流动性被动紧缩，美元指数下跌-20251109

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government shutdown has led to a passive tightening of liquidity, increasing market volatility. Once the shutdown ends, market sentiment is expected to be boosted. The US economy has not yet entered a recession, but the employment market is showing a clear weakening trend, and the economic outlook is pessimistic. The current situation of liquidity tightening may present a good entry opportunity, as it is expected to be temporary. Once the government reopens and the liquidity tightens eases, market risk appetite will recover [2][10][32] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declined, most global stock markets fell, and most bond yields rose. The US Treasury yield slightly increased to 4.09%. The US dollar index dropped 0.2% to 99.6, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB slightly declined by 0.05%, while the euro rose 0.25%, the pound rose 0.07%, and the yen rose 0.37%. Gold prices fluctuated around $4000 per ounce, the VIX index rose to 19, and the spot commodity index declined. Brent crude oil dropped 2.2% to $63.78 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Most global stock markets fell. In developed markets, the S&P 500 dropped 1.63%, and the Eurozone stock markets mostly declined. In emerging markets, most stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.08% and the Hang Seng Index rising 1.29%, while the Nikkei 225 index dropped 4.07%. The US government shutdown has dragged down the economy and employment, and the tightening of financial market liquidity has increased market volatility. The US stock market's upward trend has slowed, and concerns about high valuations and potential AI industry bubbles have increased. The domestic stock market is fluctuating at a high level, and the divergence between stock market performance and fundamentals persists [9][10][12] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields showed mixed performance. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.09%. The US government's continued shutdown, tightened financial market liquidity, and better - than - expected ADP employment data in October have reduced market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December. The Bank of England kept its policy unchanged, and the yields of major global government bonds tend to rise. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield rebounded to 1.808%, and the domestic bond market continued to fluctuate [13][16][19] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.2% to 99.6, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB slightly declined by 0.05%, the euro rose 0.25%, the pound rose 0.07%, the yen rose 0.37%, the Swiss franc dropped 0.07%, the South Korean won dropped 2.2%, the New Zealand dollar dropped 1.8%, and the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Indian rupee closed down, while the peso, real, and ringgit closed up [22][23][25] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold oscillated slightly lower, closing at $4001 per ounce. The international gold price is fluctuating around $4000, with some bottom - fishing signs in the market. However, the uncertainty of a Fed rate cut in December and the temporary liquidity tightening in the US financial market have increased market volatility, and gold lacks upward momentum in the short term. Brent crude oil dropped 2.2% to $63.78 per barrel, and the supply - demand pattern of oil prices remains weak, with the commodity spot index closing down [26][28] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The government shutdown has led to passive liquidity tightening. The balance in the US Treasury's TGA account has significantly increased, resulting in a passive tightening effect, raising overnight interest rates and the US dollar index. This has led to a weakening of market risk appetite, and most assets have declined. It is expected that the government will reopen soon, and once it does, market risk appetite will recover [29][31][32] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: Release of the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes - Tuesday: Release of the US October NFIB Small Business Confidence Index - Wednesday: US Treasury Secretary Besent will give a speech - Thursday: Release of the Bank of Canada's interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: Release of China's October social retail sales and industrial added value [34]