Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-11-09 09:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The third-quarter performance of China Pacific Insurance was primarily driven by investments, with individual insurance channels accelerating quarter by quarter [3] - The group's single-quarter revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.6% and 35.2% year-on-year, reaching 144.4 billion and 17.8 billion yuan respectively [3] - The cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters grew by 19.3% year-on-year, indicating a stable performance that aligns with market expectations [3] Financial Metrics Summary - As of the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative net asset value decreased by 2.5% to 284.2 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year [6] - The cumulative new business value (NBV) for life insurance showed a year-on-year growth of 31.2% [9] - The comprehensive cost ratio for property insurance improved by 1 percentage point to 97.6% [3] Business Segment Analysis - The new single premium growth rate for the life insurance agent channel showed a quarterly improvement, with Q3 single-quarter new premium increasing by 13.5% to 10.6 billion yuan [5] - Investment performance was a major driver of profit, with Q3 total profit increasing by 85.7% to 27.9 billion yuan, driven by a 79% increase in investment performance [6][17] - The core solvency adequacy ratio for life insurance decreased from 136% at the end of Q2 to 124% at the end of Q3, with a forecasted decline to 117% for the next quarter [9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 52.9 billion, 64.7 billion, and 75.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.7%, 22.2%, and 16.1% respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratio of 0.54, 0.48, and 0.43 for the years 2025-2027 [7]