铁矿石周度观点-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply - demand expectation of iron ore has marginally eased, and the valuation has declined from a high level [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore View - Supply: Overseas mines still have the driving force to boost shipments at the end of the year, and the market still expects more mainstream ore shipment increments in the future [5]. - Demand: The decline of hot metal production has accelerated recently, and the market's expectation of negative feedback from the industrial end has increased [5]. - Macro - level: Recently, the domestic policy has been relatively quiet, and the macro - risk preferences at home and abroad have diverged, which restricts the further upward breakthrough of the valuation of domestic risk assets to some extent [5]. - Logic summary: With the increasing inventory pressure of downstream finished products and the end of the demand peak season, the decline of blast furnace operation rate of downstream steel mills has accelerated. The market's concern about potential negative feedback has also increased. Coupled with the relatively loose supply increment, the inventory accumulation speed of domestic iron ore ports has also accelerated. Considering the demand pressure on raw materials and the relatively tight fundamentals of coking coal and coke, the iron ore valuation has dropped significantly to transfer profits to other varieties in the steel chain [5]. 3.2 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 760.5 yuan/ton, with a position of 559,000 lots, an increase of 19,100 lots. The average daily trading volume was 331,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 4,700 lots [7]. 3.3 Spot Price Performance - Spot prices also dropped significantly. For example, the price of Caffey (64.5%) decreased from 913 yuan/ton last week to 878 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton [11]. 3.4 Iron Ore Supply - Side 3.4.1 Mainstream Ore - Overseas shipments decreased month - on - month but were still at a high level year - on - year. Vale showed a trend of increasing shipments recently [15][17]. 3.4.2 Non - mainstream Ore - Canada's recent shipments increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [19]. 3.4.3 Domestic Mines - The operating rate in the southwest region fluctuated again [28]. 3.5 Iron Ore Demand - Side 3.5.1 Downstream - The decline of hot metal production accelerated recently, and the production of five major steel products changed from an increase to a decrease [31]. 3.5.2 Substitution Effect of Scrap Steel - As the iron ore price drove the overall decline of raw material costs, the scrap - hot metal price difference rebounded after reaching a phased bottom [34]. 3.6 Iron Ore Inventory - Side - The inventory accumulation at domestic ports accelerated [38][39]. 3.7 Downstream Profit - The disk profit of steel products rebounded after reaching a bottom [41]. 3.8 Spot Category Price Difference - The price of PB powder has been relatively strong recently, and the price differences such as Caffey - PB, PB - Super Special, and PB lump - powder have shown a certain regression trend [43]. 3.9 Disk Monthly Spread - The decline of near - month contracts was relatively large, and the monthly spreads of 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 narrowed slightly [45]. 3.10 Basis Performance - The futures price corrected significantly this week, and the basis increased month - on - month [49].