Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the view on offset printing paper is mainly range-bound. The paper mill's price increase letters have generally been implemented with an increase of 50 - 100 yuan/ton, which is generally positive for the futures and spot markets. The supply and demand in the spot market next week will remain basically stable, with the paper mills still having the intention to support prices, but there is no obvious positive support on the demand side, and the industry players are more on the sidelines. It is expected that the double-offset paper market will remain stable overall next week [53]. Summary by Directory Industry News - This Thursday, the inventory days of double-offset paper decreased by 0.66% compared with last Thursday, and the trend changed from rising to falling this week. At the end of last month, some dealers stocked up in advance, and the paper mill's inventory decreased slightly this week, but the overall pressure still exists [5]. - This week, the operating load rate of double-offset paper was 51.40%, a month-on-month increase of 0.16 percentage points, and the increase rate this week narrowed by 2.47 percentage points month-on-month. Most production lines were stable this week, and the overall industry operation changed little [5]. - Due to the continuous rise in wood chip costs, Asia Pulp & Paper officially announced that starting from now, the acceptance price of hardwood pulp will be increased by 150 yuan/ton [5]. Market Trends - The daily average price of 70g high-white double-offset paper on November 7 was 4430 yuan/ton, the same as yesterday and last week, with a month-on-month and year-on-year change of 0 [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of various brands of 70g double-offset paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets on November 7 were the same as those on October 31, with a month-on-month change of 0. The pre-tax and after-tax revenues remained unchanged, while the pre-tax and after-tax costs increased, and the pre-tax and after-tax gross profits decreased. The closing prices of double-offset paper futures OP2601.SHF and OP2603.SHF increased, and the 1 - 3 spread increased by 2. The basis in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased [10]. Supply and Demand Data - Industry Capacity: In 2024, the domestic double-offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57% [19]. - Weekly Output and Operation: This week, the domestic double-offset paper industry output was 184.1 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 52.5% [25]. - Enterprise Weekly Sales and Inventory: This week, the domestic double-offset paper industry sales were 187.1 thousand tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 377.0 thousand tons [30]. - Imports and Exports: In August, the domestic double-offset paper import volume was about 11 thousand tons, and the export volume was about 56 thousand tons [37]. - Inventory Situation: From the monthly sample inventory data, the social inventory and enterprise inventory continued to accumulate in October [43]. - Terminal Consumption: In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [49]. Market Judgment - Supply: Domestically, this week, the domestic double-offset paper industry output was 184.1 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 52.5%. In terms of imports, in September, the domestic double-offset paper import volume was about 11 thousand tons, continuing the previous low import volume [53]. - Demand: Domestically, this week, the domestic double-offset paper sales were 187.1 thousand tons. In terms of exports, in September, the domestic double-offset paper export volume was about 56 thousand tons [53]. - Viewpoint: From the market perspective, last week, the double-offset paper futures market fluctuated in the range of 4250 - 4300 yuan/ton, with little overall change. Looking at the spot market prices, the paper mill's price increase letters have generally been implemented with an increase of 50 - 100 yuan/ton, which is generally positive for the futures and spot markets. From the supply and demand in the spot market, the operation of the double-offset paper market next week will be basically stable, with individual production lines in Jiangsu Province shut down. As the tendering work continues, the paper mills still have the intention to support prices, but there is no obvious positive support on the demand side, and the industry players are more on the sidelines. It is expected that the double-offset paper market will remain stable overall next week [53]. - Valuation: From the basis perspective, the current spot price is at a premium to the futures price. From the perspective of delivery costs, the expected profit of paper mills from selling for delivery cannot cover the opportunity cost in the spot market. From the perspective of production costs, enterprises still have profits in production, but it is close to some relatively high marginal costs, and the overall valuation is still low [53]. - Strategy: The price trend is mainly range-bound, and the strategy is mainly range operation [53].
能源化工胶版印刷纸周度报告-20251109
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-09 09:42