下周供给冲击再度到来，关注国债买入对冲规模

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - The central bank's 7D OMO net withdrawal this week reached the highest level since February 2024, but the liquidity remained generally loose at the beginning of the month. After the large - scale maturity of the 3M repurchase on Friday, the liquidity tightened marginally, but the DR001 remained stable at slightly above 1.3%. The central bank may increase hedging after such a tightening, and the liquidity is expected to return to stability [3][7]. - The government bond net payment scale will rise to a new high since mid - July next week. The central bank's possible increase in the scale of buying treasury bonds in the open market to replace repurchase operations to supplement medium - and long - term liquidity is worthy of attention [3][18]. - It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in November will be about 1.84 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of about 620 billion yuan compared with October. The government bond issuance in December is expected to be about 2.37 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 77 billion yuan [3][30]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs I. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Liquidity Review - The central bank's 7D OMO net withdrawal was 1.5722 trillion yuan this week, reaching the highest level since February 2024. The 3M repurchase operation on Wednesday offset the maturity on Friday. The liquidity remained loose at the beginning of the month and tightened marginally on Friday after the 3M repurchase maturity, but the DR001 remained stable at slightly above 1.3% [3][7]. - After the cross - month period, the repurchase market activity increased. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase rose by 1.27 trillion yuan to 7.97 trillion yuan compared with last week. The overall scale of pledged repurchase returned above 12 trillion yuan but decreased significantly on Friday [3][14]. - The new - caliber liquidity gap index fluctuated downward to - 838.3 billion on Thursday and rebounded to - 488.7 billion on Friday, still lower than last Friday. The weekly excess reserve ratio dropped to 0.9%, a new low since mid - September [3][14][18]. 1.2 Next Week's Liquidity Outlook - The treasury bond payment scale next week is expected to be 315.9 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance scale in 12 regions is 285.1 billion yuan, with an actual payment scale of 230.5 billion yuan. The government bond net payment scale will rise from 36.8 billion yuan this week to 424.2 billion yuan, a new high since mid - July [20][22]. - The 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity scale next week will decrease from 2.07 trillion yuan to 495.8 billion yuan. The new stock issuance of Nante Technology on the Beijing Stock Exchange may bring some disturbances to the exchange liquidity price from Tuesday to Wednesday. The central bank is expected to increase liquidity injection to stabilize the market [3][38]. II. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1Y Shibor rate dropped 1.7BP to 1.65% this week, and the secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.2BP to 1.63% [3][39]. - The net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit rose by 1.01 billion yuan to 163.8 billion yuan this week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 23.9 billion yuan, - 57.5 billion yuan, 170.6 billion yuan, and 33.1 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit decreased to 24%, and the 6M certificates of deposit had the highest issuance proportion at 38% [3][42]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks and joint - stock banks decreased this week, while those of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks increased. The issuance spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks for 1Y certificates of deposit widened [43]. - The supply - demand relative strength index of certificates of deposit first decreased and then increased this week. The 3M supply - demand index rose, while the other maturity varieties decreased slightly [54]. III. Bill Market - The bill rates rebounded significantly this week but remained at a low level overall. The 3M and 6M national bill rates rose 36BP and 41BP respectively compared with October 31, reaching 0.37% and 0.61% [59]. IV. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market adjusted slightly this week, and the credit spread narrowed slightly. The willingness of large banks to increase bond holdings weakened, while the willingness of trading - type institutions to increase bond holdings decreased significantly, and the willingness of allocation - type institutions to increase bond holdings increased [62].