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可转债周度追踪:顺势而为-20251109
ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-11-09 09:35

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report [1][2] Group 2 - Core Views of the Report - Convertible bond high valuation and limited bond selection space weaken the elasticity of convertible bonds, showing weak Sharpe characteristics. In a strong bullish atmosphere in the equity market, it is recommended to maintain convertible bond positions, balance style allocation, and use a trading mindset for individual bonds. Select balanced convertible bonds with strong underlying stock logic, where high stock price volatility can quickly digest the high premium of convertible bonds, and high - quality convertible bonds in non - callable equity - biased varieties with low premium rates [1][2] - The convertible bond index has been oscillating upwards recently but is weaker than equities. The convertible bond elasticity is weak, and it shows weak Sharpe characteristics. The high valuation of convertible bonds and limited bond selection space have weakened their elasticity. The convertible bond market lacks incremental capital inflows, and most institutional convertible bond positions have decreased [2] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - The convertible bond index has been oscillating upwards, but it is weaker than equities. The median of convertible bond prices has reached 133 yuan, still some distance from the August high. Convertible bond elasticity is weak, and internal styles lack a clear trend, increasing trading difficulty [7] - High convertible bond valuations and limited bond selection space weaken elasticity. The valuations of convertible bonds are oscillating at a high level. The premium rates of debt - biased, balanced, and equity - biased convertible bonds are about 85%, 24%, and 9.6% respectively. The convertible bond return space has decreased compared to the third quarter [7] - Funds represented by ETFs have been flowing out slightly, and the convertible bond market lacks incremental capital inflows. Except for QFII, the convertible bond positions of institutions have decreased, with public funds reducing their holdings by 3.65 billion yuan [8] - In a strong bullish atmosphere in the equity market, it is recommended to maintain convertible bond positions, balance style allocation, and use a trading mindset for individual bonds. Select balanced convertible bonds with strong underlying stock logic and low - premium targets among non - callable equity - biased varieties [8][9] 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indexes such as the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wind Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. in different time periods including the recent week, two weeks, since September, etc. [12] 2.2 Individual Convertible Bonds - The report shows the top ten and bottom ten individual convertible bonds in terms of price increase and decrease in the recent week [13][15] 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - The report presents the valuation trends of debt - biased, balanced, and equity - biased convertible bonds, as well as the valuation trends of convertible bonds with different parities [19][21][26] 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - The report shows the proportion trend of high - priced bonds and the median trend of convertible bond prices [23][30] 3. November Convertible Bond Recommendations - It is recommended to pay attention to convertible bonds such as Shangyin Convertible Bond, Shouhua Convertible Bond, etc. [11]