能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to enter a period of range - bound consolidation. The domestic production areas are gradually entering the production reduction period, and the domestic raw material prices are firm. After the decline in rubber prices, downstream buyers are stocking up at low prices, which may increase the warehouse pick - up volume next week and slow down the inventory accumulation rate. From the perspective of inventory and phased supply, light - colored rubber may still perform better than dark - colored rubber [111]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In Q3 2025, the European replacement tire market sales decreased by 0.6% year - on - year to 63.984 million pieces. Passenger car tire sales decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, truck and bus tire shipments decreased by 4% year - on - year, agricultural tire shipments increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and motorcycle/scooter tire shipments increased by 1% year - on - year [5]. - In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 1% to 4.86 million tons. The northern region will increase by 3.1%, the northeastern region by 1.3%, the central region will decrease by 1.7%, and the southern region will increase by 1.2%. The annual harvesting area is expected to slightly decrease by 0.1%, while the per - mu yield will increase by 0.9% [6]. - In October 2025, China imported 667,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 1.2% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to October, the total import volume was 6.782 million tons, a 17.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [7]. - The European Commission officially launched an anti - subsidy investigation into passenger cars and light - truck tires on November 6, 2025 [7]. Market Trends - This week, the prices of RU, NR, and the overseas TSR20 in the rubber market declined synchronously, with NR leading the decline, while the price of Japanese rubber increased. As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 14,995 yuan/ton, a 0.60% decrease from the previous period; the closing price of NR2601 was 12,035 yuan/ton, a 1.67% decrease; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2601 was 168.70 cents/kg, a 1.17% decrease; and the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2601 was 312.90 yen/kg, a 1.10% increase [9][11]. Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the rainfall in the southern region is lower than the same period, and the rainfall in the northeastern region shows a seasonal decline, with a slight increase at the end of the week due to the influence of typhoons. In China, the rainfall in Hainan production area decreased this week, and the rainfall in Yunnan production area decreased seasonally [41][43]. - The raw material prices in domestic and foreign production areas are showing a differentiated trend due to the typhoon's impact on rubber tapping and the weakened purchasing enthusiasm of factories. As of November 7, 2025, the price of glue in Thailand was 56.30 baht/kg, a 0.54% decrease from the previous period; the price of raw rubber sheets was 55.55 baht/kg, a 0.36% increase; the price of Hainan glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 13,000 yuan/ton, a 0.76% decrease; and the price of Yunnan glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 13,700 yuan/ton, a 2.84% decrease [45][47]. - The production profits of Thai standard rubber and Hainan concentrated latex increased, while the production profits of Thai smoked sheets and Thai concentrated latex decreased. As of November 7, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 559 yuan/ton, a 32.16% increase from the previous period; the production profit of Thai smoked sheets was 460.99 yuan/ton, a 12.84% decrease; the production profit of Thai concentrated latex was 1,967 yuan/ton, a 2.91% decrease; and the production profit of Hainan concentrated latex was - 133.77 yuan/ton, an 18.25% increase [55][58]. - In September 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The exports of standard rubber decreased significantly year - on - year, while the exports of smoked sheets increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Thailand's natural rubber exports to China decreased month - on - month, with a significant increase in the exports of smoked sheets to China year - on - year and month - on - month, and a significant decrease in the exports of standard rubber year - on - year and month - on - month [65][68]. - In October 2025, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to the significant decrease in the exports of standard rubber, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. The total exports to China also decreased month - on - month [71]. - In September 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased seasonally, with the reduction mainly in latex and standard rubber [75]. - In September 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports continued to grow at a high rate, and the exports to China increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [79]. - In September 2025, China imported 595,900 tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber), a 14.41% increase month - on - month and a 20.92% increase year - on - year. The imports of Indonesian standard rubber and mixed rubber increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [83]. Demand - Last week, the production of maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate, and most other enterprises' equipment operated stably. During the period, the products were mainly sold in the normal way, and the overall inventory fluctuated slightly. The all - steel tires started to accumulate inventory again this week, and the semi - steel tires also accumulated inventory. As of November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a 0.05% increase from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a 1.07% increase; the inventory days of all - steel tires were 39.20 days, a 0.49% increase; and the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 45.05 days, a 0.51% increase [86][88]. - In September 2025, the exports of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month, but the exports of all - steel tires were still at a relatively high level year - on - year. The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks continued to grow year - on - year and month - on - month, and the sales volume of passenger cars continued to grow at a high rate year - on - year and month - on - month [89]. - In September 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation improved year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [92]. Inventory - The current domestic natural rubber inventory has increased significantly, with an increase in dark - colored rubber and a decrease in light - colored rubber. The inventory in Qingdao has increased significantly. As of October 31, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.056 million tons, a 1.64% increase from the previous week; the inventory of dark - colored rubber was 657,900 tons, a 2.92% increase; and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 398,200 tons, a 0.40% decrease [99]. - As of November 7, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 119,000 tons, a 1.60% decrease from the previous week; the futures and spot inventory was 162,200 tons, a 0.08% increase; the futures inventory of 20 - grade rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 48,600 tons, an 8.80% increase; and the futures and spot inventory was 51,900 tons, a 5.97% increase [105]. This Week's View Summary - Supply: The domestic production areas are gradually entering the production reduction period, and the domestic raw material prices are firm. After the decline in rubber prices, downstream buyers are stocking up at low prices, which may increase the warehouse pick - up volume next week and slow down the inventory accumulation rate [111]. - Demand: This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%. The production of maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level last week, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will operate stably with a slight weakness in the next period [110]. - View: It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a period of range - bound consolidation in the short term. From the perspective of inventory and phased supply, light - colored rubber may still perform better than dark - colored rubber [111]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, consider buying on dips after a sharp decline; if the market is in a narrow - range consolidation, it is advisable to wait and see. For inter - period trading, observe. For options, investors who meet the suitability requirements can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [113].