能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil showed a rebound trend, gradually returning to the levels at the beginning of the month. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the spot market's transaction premium did not strengthen significantly, indicating no obvious supply shortage, but the export situation of Russia needs to be observed. For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is rumored that state - owned refineries are converting some low - sulfur export quotas into refined oil export quotas, which will lead to a decline in future port spot supply, making the LU price stronger than the FU price. However, as the domestic price rises, domestic traders may increase imports, which will resist the upward price trend. - Valuation: FU is between 2600 - 2800, and LU is between 3150 - 3350. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU remains weak in the short term, while LU is still strong. 2) Inter - period: The LU monthly spread structure has been reversed and will remain so before the number of warehouse receipts increases. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread fluctuates at a high level; the LU - FU spread will gradually rebound in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Refinery Operation: The content shows the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025. [6] - Global Refinery Maintenance: It presents the maintenance volumes of global CDU devices, hydrocracking devices, FCC devices, and coking devices from 2018 - 2025. [9][11][13][14] - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: It shows the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [19][20] Demand - Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [23] Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: It shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025. [27][29][30] Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [34][35][36][37] - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [38][39][40][42][44] - US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices: It shows the spot prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil in the New York Harbor, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [45] - Paper and Derivative Prices: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2025, as well as the prices of LU and FU futures contracts from 2021 - 2025. [48][49][51][52][54][56] - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: It shows the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2025. [59] - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread: It shows the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025. [60][61][62][63] - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: It shows the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025. [65] Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [70][72][73] - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil, including data from China, the Middle East, the US, etc. [74] - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil, including data from Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, etc. [76] Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Review: This week, the Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices declined, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were weaker than the overseas market, and the spreads began to shrink. - Logic: For FU, the short positions still led the long positions, causing the FU to be weaker than the overseas spot, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, the number of warehouse receipts increased significantly at the beginning of the delivery period, the market view turned short - term bearish, the long positions decreased rapidly, and the spread of LU relative to the overseas spot began to decline. [79][80] - Spot Market Internal - External Spreads: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil from 2021 - 2025. [83][85] - Futures Market Internal - External Spreads: It shows the internal - external spreads of FU and LU futures contracts relative to Singapore from 2021 - 2025. [90][91] - FU and LU Position and Volume Changes: It shows the position and volume changes of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts from 2020 - 2025. [94][95][96][99][100][102] - FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes: It shows the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025. [105][106]