Changjiang Securities·2025-11-09 09:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has accelerated its upward trend, with the current market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal reaching 817 RMB/ton, an increase of 47 RMB/ton week-on-week. The report suggests that the price could potentially rise to 931 RMB/ton based on profit recovery scenarios for power plants [2][6][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding cyclical trends over pinpointing absolute price peaks, highlighting a favorable environment for coal investments due to global monetary easing and a rebound in the coal cycle [2][7] Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 4.53%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.71 percentage points. The thermal coal index rose by 4.84%, while the coking coal index increased by 1.87% [16][20] - As of November 7, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 817 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 47 RMB/ton. The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1860 RMB/ton, up 100 RMB/ton [6][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes a tightening supply due to production checks and increased winter demand, predicting that coal prices in Q4 may exceed expectations. It highlights the importance of monitoring winter storage and port inventory changes [6][17] - The daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 511.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% week-on-week, while coal supply increased slightly to 547.3 million tons [34] Price Projections - The report provides calculations indicating that if the profit margins for coal-fired power plants return to long-term averages, the acceptable market price for thermal coal could rise to 789 RMB/ton or even 931 RMB/ton under certain conditions [7][12] - The report also discusses the impact of upcoming capacity price adjustments in 2026, which could further influence coal pricing dynamics [7][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a comprehensive embrace of the coal sector's "Davis Double Play" bottom reversal trend, recommending a diversified selection of stocks based on different strategies: balanced, aggressive, and stable leaders [2][7]