关注南美天气情况，豆菜粕短期或宽幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of sufficient domestic soybean supply and poor import soybean crushing margins, it is expected that soybean and rapeseed meal will experience short - term wide - range fluctuations [3]. - For US soybeans, the 13% tariff on US soybean imports is still higher than the 3% tariff on South American soybeans. Market expectations suggest that the purchase of US soybeans is limited to state - owned oil mills, and the amount flowing into crushing is limited. China has promised to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and 25 million tons per year for the next three years, but it is expected that part of the 12 million tons of purchased US soybeans will enter the national reserve [4]. - In South America, the rainfall in the central - western region of Brazil in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean sowing. Data from the US Climate Prediction Center shows that the La Nina phenomenon may last until February next year. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on South American soybean production [4]. - Domestically, the widespread losses in domestic import soybean crushing margins have strengthened the price - holding intention of oil mills, which supports the price of soybean meal [4]. - For trading strategies, for single - sided trading, the support level for soybean meal 2601 is recommended to be around 2900 - 3000. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to experience short - term wide - range fluctuations [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Periodic and Spot Market - Last week, the soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly. The main reasons for the increase were the poor import soybean crushing margins, which supported the meal price, and the possibility that part of the imported US soybeans might enter the national reserve. The September USDA report slightly favored the bearish side. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the estimated yield per acre of soybeans in 2025/26 by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels per acre, increased the soybean planting area by 200,000 acres, increased the crushing volume by 15 million bushels, and decreased the export volume by 20 million bushels, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory from the August estimate of 290 million bushels to 300 million bushels [14]. - The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. - The 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.2. Supply Side - According to the US Department of Agriculture's export sales report, as of the week ending September 18, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 724,459 tons [30]. - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.15 per bushel, a 7.73% decrease from the previous week and a 33.02% decrease from the same period last year [36]. - In September 2025, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.498 million tons or 13.17%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.331 million tons or 5.29% [39]. - As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons or 5.39% from the previous week and an increase of 1.6005 million tons or 29.06% from the same period last year. The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons or 9.33% from the previous week and an increase of 168,900 tons or 17.16% from the same period last year [69]. - As of November 7, 2025 (week 45), the physical inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises were 7.75 days, a decrease of 0.26 days or 3.39% from October 31 and a decrease of 6.69% from the same period last year [72]. - As of October 31, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 7,100 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The unexecuted contracts were 7,100 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [74]. 3.3. Demand Side - The report presents data on pig prices, pig - grain ratios, pig self - breeding profits, pig外购 profits, white - feather broiler breeding profits, and laying - hen breeding profits through charts, but no specific analysis of these data is provided in the text [54][58][63].