供强需弱，铁矿震荡下跌

Report Information - Report Title: Hualian Futures Iron Ore Weekly Report - Supply Strong, Demand Weak, Iron Ore Oscillating Downward [1] - Date: 20251109 [1] - Author: Zeng Ke [1] - Reviewer: Xiao Yonghui [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - After the macro - events, during the policy vacuum period, iron ore prices returned to the real - world situation, showing an oscillating downward trend last week. Supply is strong with a significant increase in near - end foreign ore arrivals and high historical shipping volumes, while demand is weak as pig iron production continues to decline, steel mill profitability drops sharply, and blast furnace maintenance expands. With supply exceeding demand, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - Strategy: Short the Iron Ore 2601 contract on rallies, with a reference pressure level of 820 - 850 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Global Shipping: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 174,600 tons week - on - week to 3.2138 million tons. Non - mainstream regions' shipping decreased by 13,600 tons week - on - week to 530,300 tons [4][39]. - Australia and Brazil Shipping: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, Australia's 19 ports shipped 1.8275 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 92,000 tons; Brazil's 19 ports shipped 856,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,100 tons [4][36]. - Arrival Volume: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 45 ports increased by 1.1893 million tons week - on - week to 3.2184 million tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1.5859 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 490,000 tons [4][48]. - Domestic Mine Supply: As of November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mine enterprises was 63.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%; the daily average output of iron concentrate powder was 39,880 tons/day, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous week [61]. 3.2 Demand - Pig Iron Production and Blast Furnace Operation: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%; the daily average pig iron output decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 234,220 tons, and pig iron production continued to decline [4][64]. - Steel Mill Profitability: As of November 7, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.19% [4][78]. - Consumption of Downstream Products: The report shows historical data trends of consumption and production of products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, but no specific demand - related data summaries are provided [70][74]. 3.3 Inventory - Port Inventory: As of November 7, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 14.89883 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 356,350 tons. Among them, Australian ore inventory was 6.17069 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,290 tons; Brazilian ore inventory was 5.87431 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,440 tons [4][17][21]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mill imported iron ore inventory was 9.00994 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 160,080 tons. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 21 days, the same as the previous week [4][32].