Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report: Tight Supply on the Supply Side, Limited Downward Adjustment Space for Coking Coal and Coke" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, market sentiment cooled, and the black chain weakened. Coking coal and coke were relatively strong in the black chain, with a small correction range. The supply of coking coal is tight due to factors such as mine over - production checks and stricter safety supervision policies, but the demand is weak as steel mills' profits are poor, blast furnace maintenance has expanded, and hot metal production has continued to decline. Overall, the short - term weakening of demand puts pressure on the upward movement of coking coal and coke prices, but due to the tight supply of coking coal and limited coal mine production release, the downward adjustment space for coking coal and coke is expected to be limited [4] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - Supply: For coking coal, last week, the coal mine开工率 decreased week - on - week, and coking coal production slightly declined. Factors such as over - production checks, safety, and environmental protection restricted the supply elasticity of coking coal. For coke, the supply was tight, and the capacity utilization rate continued to decline. On November 7, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 71.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%; the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 63.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons [4] - Demand: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace开工率 of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, an increase of 1.38% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal production decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 2.3422 million tons, and hot metal production continued to decline. The profit rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week. The third round of coke price increase was implemented, and coking profits improved slightly, but most coking enterprises still suffered serious losses. The supply of coke was tight, steel mills' profits were poor, blast furnace maintenance increased, and hot metal production continued to decline [4] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory structure of coal mines improved week - on - week. On November 7, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 4.1924 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 123,700 tons. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing was good, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased by 175,400 tons week - on - week to 10.7002 million tons, while the coking coal inventory of steel mills slightly decreased. For coke, the coke inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased week - on - week [4] - Viewpoint: Short - term demand weakness puts pressure on the upward movement of coking coal and coke prices, but due to tight coking coal supply and limited coal mine production release, the downward adjustment space for coking coal and coke is expected to be limited [4] - Strategy: Go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips, with a reference operating range of 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton [4] 2. Industrial Chain Structure - No specific content for analysis is provided in the given text 3. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the price trends of coking coal futures contracts (DCE jm2601, jm2605), coke futures contracts (DCE j2601, j2605), the price differences between contracts 1 - 5 for coking coal and coke, as well as the spot prices of coking coal (including Port Mongolian 5 raw coal, Lvliang medium - sulfur main coking coal, etc.) and coke (including Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke, Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke, etc.) through charts [9][13][19][25] 4. Inventory - Coking Coal Inventory: The inventory of 523 sample mines decreased week - on - week, the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased, and that of steel mills slightly decreased. Charts show the inventory trends of mines, ports, 247 steel mills, and all - sample independent coking enterprises [4][32][38] - Coke Inventory: The coke inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased week - on - week. Charts show the inventory trends of all - sample independent coking enterprises, 247 steel mills, ports, and all - sample coke [4][39] 5. Supply Side - Coking Coal Import: No detailed analysis content is provided, only charts of coking coal imports from different regions to China are presented [49] - Coking Coal Production: On November 7, the coking coal开工率 of 523 sample mines was 83.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%; the daily average raw coal output of 523 sample mines was 1.8633 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons [55] - Coking Output: On November 7, the capacity utilization rate of 230 coking enterprises was 71.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%; the daily average output of national independent coking enterprises was 635,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate and daily output of 247 steel mills' coke also decreased week - on - week [56][59] 6. Demand Side - Hot Metal and Blast Furnace Operation: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace开工率 of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, an increase of 1.38% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal production decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 2.3422 million tons, and hot metal production continued to decline [63] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The report presents the production and consumption trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil through charts [64][66] - Long - Process and Short - Process Production: The report presents the production trends of long - process and short - process rebar through charts [73] - Steel Mill and Coke Profit: As of November 7, 2025, the profit rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [76]
供应端偏紧，煤焦回调空间有限
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-11-09 10:26