需求疲软，价格走跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment is changeable, causing greater fluctuations in polyolefins. The decline in crude oil weakens the cost - side drive. With large - scale capacity investment and high output, the supply side faces significant pressure. The downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level, demand falls short of expectations, and the end of the peak season and insufficient new orders may affect the continuous improvement of subsequent operations. Polyolefins maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to run weakly. Futures should be operated bearishly on a single - side basis, and straddle options should be sold [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - Inventory: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 470,000 tons, with inventory expected to change from rising to falling. The new Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased production, putting pressure on producers, who have an expectation of active de - stocking. The downstream factory operating rate is also expected to rise, and low prices are more attractive. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 580,000 tons, a decrease from the current period. Upstream enterprises are actively de - stocking, and the Double Eleven e - commerce festival drives downstream demand [6]. - Supply: This week, plants such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Zhongtian Hechuang are planned to restart, and new plants of Sinopec Korea and Zhongsha Petrochemical are planned for maintenance. Coupled with the continuous increase in production from newly - invested plants, the domestic polyethylene supply is increasing. The total output in the next period is expected to be 667,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from the current total output. The total output of Chinese polypropylene is estimated to be 818,000 tons, continuing to increase. Some producers are still resuming operations, and the estimated loss volume continues to decline. Additionally, the 400,000 - ton/year new plant of Guangxi Petrochemical Phase II will start mass - production and sales soon, so the polypropylene output is expected to increase [6]. - Demand: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has increased slightly. The greenhouse film is still in the production peak season, but due to the gradual contraction of demand after the Frost's Descent, orders are mainly short - term small ones. The operating rate of PP downstream industries is rising steadily, but after the e - commerce activities end, insufficient new orders may affect the continuous increase in subsequent operations [6]. - Industrial Chain Profit: The profits of oil - based PE and PP, ethylene - based PE, and propylene - based PP are slightly in the red, and the loss of PDH - based PP is relatively large. The cost - side support is weakening [6]. 3.2 PP Single - Side Strategy - Strategy: Short PP. The price shows a downward trend, and as of November 6th, it was 6,471 yuan. The logic is that the new PP production capacity in 2025 is still large, and downstream demand remains weak. PP is expected to be relatively weak in the medium - to - long - term. The operation suggestion is to hold short positions [7]. 3.3 L - P Arbitrage Strategy - Strategy: Long the L - P spread (on hold). The price shows a volatile trend. For the 2601 contract, as of November 6th, it was 334 yuan. The driving force is not strong, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3.4 Supply Side - PE Production: The domestic polyethylene supply is increasing. The total output in the next period is expected to be 667,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from the current total output. The plastic industry has maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 12.8%. In 2024, the capacity base was 3.571 million tons, and the new capacity was 340,000 tons. In 2025, the planned new PE production capacity is 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [6][83][90]. - PP Production: The total output of Chinese polypropylene is estimated to be 818,000 tons, continuing to increase. In 2024, China's PP realized production capacity was about 3.45 million tons, with a capacity base of 4.321 million tons, an 8.6% increase from 2023. In 2025, the planned new PP production capacity is 1.2805 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume is relatively limited [6][89][91]. 3.5 Demand Side - The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has increased slightly, and the operating rate of PP downstream industries is rising steadily. However, after the e - commerce activities end, insufficient new orders may affect the continuous increase in subsequent operations. The report also presents data on the operating rates of various downstream industries of PE and PP, as well as the production and export volumes of related products such as plastics, automobiles, and home appliances [6][94].