智利10月发运回升，市场对供应博弈加剧

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (11/03 - 11/07), lithium salt prices showed a strong oscillation. The downstream demand remains strong, and the inventory reduction rhythm is accelerating. However, the supply of Chilean lithium salt shipments and Australian ore exports has increased marginally, and domestic lithium salt resources are also expanding production simultaneously. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. In the medium - term, the power demand is expected to weaken from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, and a mid - term high - selling short - selling strategy can be considered [2][4][24] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Chile's Shipment Increased Significantly in October, and the Market's Game on Supply Intensified - Price Changes: Last week, LC2511 closed at 80,500 yuan/ton, up 1.5% month - on - month; LC2601 closed at 82,300 yuan/ton, up 1.9% month - on - month. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices were 80,400 and 78,200 yuan/ton respectively, down 0.2% month - on - month. The price of lithium hydroxide remained stable. The battery - grade lithium hydroxide was at a discount to the battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the discount widened by 0.05 million yuan to 0.48 million yuan/ton [2][14] - Chilean Shipment Data: In October, Chile exported 27,600 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, up 50% month - on - month and 28% year - on - year. Exports to China were 16,200 tons, up 46% month - on - month and down 4% year - on - year. From January to October, the total export was 215,000 tons, down 0.7% year - on - year, with 137,000 tons to China, down 15% year - on - year. In October, the shipment of lithium sulfate to China was 1,700 tons (about 854 tons LCE), down 64% month - on - month and 80% year - on - year. From January to October, the total shipment was 72,000 tons (36,000 tons LCE), up 81% year - on - year [3][16] - Market Analysis: The release of the assessment report of the mining right transfer income of Jianxiawo may indicate that the resumption process is progressing smoothly, but the resumption time is still uncertain. The short - term market is expected to oscillate widely, and a mid - term high - selling short - selling strategy can be considered [4][24] 2. Review of Weekly Industry News - Salt Lake Co., Ltd.: Plans to produce 43,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2025, and a 40,000 - ton lithium salt project was officially put into operation at the end of September [25] - Hainan Mining Co., Ltd.: The first batch of 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate from the Buguni lithium mine was shipped on October 14, and is expected to be transported back to China early next year. The company enjoys tax incentives and policy support [25] - Jiangxi Natural Resources Department: Released the public notice of the assessment report of the mining right transfer income of Jianxiawo, including resource utilization, reserves, technical indicators, and the assessment value of the mining right transfer income [26] - TrendForce: Predicts that the global demand for solid - state batteries will reach 740GWh in 2035 [26] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Spot is Strong - Lithium concentrate spot prices are showing a relatively strong trend, but specific data is not elaborated in the text [27] 3.2 Lithium Salt: The Game of Resumption Disturbance Intensifies - The price of lithium salt futures and spot shows certain changes. The resumption of production in mica projects and the increase in supply from Chile and Australia have an impact on the market, and the short - term market is expected to oscillate [24] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Ternary and Lithium Cobaltate Continue to be Strong - Ternary materials and lithium cobaltate prices continue to show a strong trend, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate and related products are relatively stable [40][41][44][45] 3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles Reached 50% in September - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%, indicating strong demand in the terminal market [47]