通胀数据点评：核心CPI“1.2%”，PPI环比“首次转正”

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflation data in October showed the characteristics of "warming CPI and improving PPI". The CPI turned from negative to positive year-on-year, and the core CPI reached a new high since March 2024. The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed, and the month-on-month increase was positive for the first time this year, reflecting the resonance of policies to expand domestic demand and the long - holiday effect, with both consumer and industrial product prices improving [1][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. 10 - month CPI and PPI Data Overview - In October, the CPI was 0.2% year - on - year (previous value - 0.3%), 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.1%); the PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year (previous value - 2.3%), 0.1% month - on - month (previous value 0.0%) [1][6] 2. Structural Highlights behind the Strong Core CPI - The continuous release of policies to expand domestic demand has increased residents' marginal propensity to consume and supported core prices. Under the "trade - in" policy, the prices of household appliances, cultural and entertainment durable goods, and household sundries increased by 2.4% - 5.0%, and the decline of fuel - powered car prices narrowed to 2.3% [2][7] - The "resilience" of service consumption is prominent. In October, service prices increased by 0.8% year - on - year, a major driver of the core CPI. Service consumption demand, represented by tourism and entertainment, continued to be released, and may gradually become a stabilizer for domestic demand growth. During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, hotel accommodation, air ticket, and tourism prices increased by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively, higher than seasonal levels [2][7] - Affected by international gold prices, domestic gold jewelry prices increased by 50.3% year - on - year, supporting industrial consumer goods prices [2][7] 3. Reasons for the First Positive Month - on - Month PPI in October - Positive aspects: The increase in upstream raw material prices was mainly driven by a 0.1% month - on - month increase in production material prices. The improvement in supply - demand relationships led to price increases in some industries, such as a 1.6% month - on - month increase in the coal mining and washing industry. Some industries, like computers and lithium batteries, saw price increases due to improved supply - demand patterns supported by industrial upgrading policies. International price increases in non - ferrous metals were transmitted to the domestic market, driving a 2.4% month - on - month increase in the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry [3][8] - Areas to improve: The month - on - month price of consumer goods was flat, and the year - on - year price still decreased by 1.4%, indicating that the recovery of terminal consumer demand lagged behind that of the upstream. The positive month - on - month increase in upstream raw material prices but slow recovery of downstream demand may squeeze the profit margins of mid - and downstream enterprises [3][8] 4. Implications of the Widening CPI - PPI Gap - In October, the CPI was 0.2% year - on - year, the PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, and the gap was 2.3 percentage points, 0.3 percentage points wider than in September [4][9] - The year - on - year increase in CPI was mainly driven by service consumption and some industrial consumer goods, but this demand was not enough to fully absorb the industrial supply capacity, and industrial product prices were still in the negative range year - on - year. The widening gap means that the gross profit margins of mid - and downstream industries in the industrial chain, such as food processing, home appliances, and automobiles, are expected to improve [4][9]