12月美联储预计仍有较大概率降息

Group 1 - In October, both export and import growth rates fell short of expectations, with exports (in USD) declining by 1.1% year-on-year, compared to a previous increase of 8.3%, and imports rising by 1.0%, down from 7.4% [1][8][12] - The trade surplus for October was reported at 90.07 billion USD, slightly down from the previous 90.447 billion USD [8] - The industrial production index showed a rebound, with specific sectors such as methanol, tires, and certain steel production seeing improvements, while pure soda experienced a decline [22][23] Group 2 - The report indicates a significant probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December, with a 66.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 33.1% chance of maintaining current rates [31][32] - The geopolitical landscape is being monitored closely, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and developments in the Middle East, which could impact market conditions [27][29] Group 3 - The industry allocation strategy suggests focusing on three main directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, economic recovery leading to a "stronger stronger" market style, and the continued rise of undervalued sectors [33] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Hang Seng Internet sector, indicating that initial market preferences may favor high-growth sectors, while later stages may see a shift towards cyclical stocks with better performance as fundamentals improve [33]