央行买债节奏平滑低于预期，基本面与货币政策共振仍可能推升债市：多因素推动外贸明显走弱，科技类题材风偏分歧明显

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rhythm of the central bank's bond - buying is smoother than expected, but the resonance between the fundamentals and monetary policy may still push up the bond market [6]. - The monetary policy is gradually reaching more consensus on aggregate easing, and the intensification of monetary policy is entering the implementation stage as previously predicted [8]. - The bond market may still have upward momentum, and the yield curve may continue to steepen [8]. Summary According to the Directory 01 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - The central bank's large - scale reverse - repurchase withdrawal led to a marginal convergence of capital prices after an initial loose period, with overall price stability. The central bank restarted bond - buying with a purchase of 20 billion yuan, the lowest level since the start of bond - buying and significantly lower than the 100 - 300 billion yuan level in 2024. The 70 billion yuan 3 - month repurchase in November was fully hedged [8][34]. - The symbolic significance of the central bank's bond - buying may be more positive than the actual scale, which is bearish. The central bank's small - scale bond - buying is mainly due to concerns about the sharp decline in bond yields during the previous bond - buying period [8][34]. - The weakening of foreign trade data is affected by both the holiday misalignment and the decline in external demand, and foreign trade pressure still exists. The macro - financial and economic data to be released next week may be weak, especially in the real estate sector [8]. - The monetary policy is expected to intensify, and the bond market may have upward momentum, with the curve likely to continue to steepen [8]. 02 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes (P5 - 6) No relevant content provided. 03 Recent Macro Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - Domestic: In October, trade data showed a significant year - on - year decline in export growth, turning negative and lower than expected. The decline in exports was due to short - term factors and structural pressures, including the high - base effect, holiday misalignment, and the impact of US tariff policies. The natural decline in foreign trade is a more concerning trend. Moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented [8][19]. - Overseas: Due to the US government shutdown, the labor department missed employment data for two consecutive months. ADP employment data and the significant increase in Challenger job - cuts point to a loosening US labor market. Although the ISM manufacturing PMI declined slightly, the service PMI rebounded, mainly driven by new orders and business activities. The US economy is still growing at a slower pace but remains resilient [8][19]. 04 Fundamentals Analysis and Bond Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P14 - 24) - Fundamentals: The central bank's bond - buying and repurchase operations did not exceed expectations. The bond market declined slightly due to the weakening of bond - buying sentiment and the marginal convergence of the capital side. The weakening of foreign trade data and the upcoming release of potentially weak macro - financial and economic data may affect the bond market. The redemption fee rate of public funds still disturbs the bond market sentiment [8]. - Indicator Monitoring: Data on bond yields, reverse - repurchase operations, and various bond - related indicators such as bond futures prices, positions, and spreads are presented, showing the performance and changes in the bond market [43][47][94]. 05 Equity Broad - based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P25 - 31) - Fundamentals: Data on the ROE of major equity broad - based indices are presented, showing the relationship between the ROE of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc., and macro - economic data [96][99][101]. - Liquidity and Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring: No relevant in - depth analysis content provided. 06 Macro - economic Medium - term Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring (P32 - 50) No relevant content provided. 07 Macro - economic Long - wave Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring (P51 - 52) No relevant content provided.