橡胶周报：需求弱势拖累胶价-20251109

Report Information - Report Title: "Hualian Futures Rubber Weekly - Weak Demand Drags Down Rubber Prices" [2] - Date: 20251109 [2] - Analyst: Li Zhaofeng [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to decline and needs to stabilize. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts are favorable for the capital market, but the spill - over effects of a potential US recession should be watched out for [4]. - The long - term supply cycle is shifting, which boosts valuation, but supply is elastic. The current year's natural rubber production areas have better weather conditions than last year, and the supply is expected to be stable, with a projected 0.5% increase in global production and a 10% increase in China's imports [4]. - The exchange's ru warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and nr warehouse receipts were once at an extremely low level. Qingdao's dry rubber inventory has recently increased due to concentrated shipping schedules, and there is an expectation of further inventory build - up in the future. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high [4]. - Demand has been over - drawn by export rush and replacement demand. The real estate market shows no signs of improvement, and new vehicle and export demand are also weakening. Without strong policy support or inflation, demand will likely drag down the market [4]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on ru and short on nr, and to pay attention to the supply volume during the peak production season [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - Natural rubber spot prices have weakened, with only a limited rebound from the previous low and still at a low level. Synthetic rubber prices have hit a new low for the year, deviating from the trends of natural rubber and crude oil [6]. - The ru basis is at a multi - year high, and the monthly spread has strengthened but remains in a contango structure, which is unfavorable for long positions [12]. - The ru 1 - 9 monthly spread has weakened to - 125 but is still stronger than last year. The nr consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 monthly spread is around - 35 and has weakened. The br consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 monthly spread is around 75 and has limited rebound momentum [17]. - The spread between spot whole latex and 20 - grade rubber has rebounded slightly from a low level, and synthetic rubber Br has weakened significantly compared to natural rubber [22]. Raw Material Prices - Thai raw material prices have stabilized marginally, and the weak spread between glue and cup lump suggests stable supply. Currently, the global market is in the peak production season with slightly more rainfall [27]. - Domestic raw material prices show that the absolute price of old whole latex has returned to the key range before last year's rally but is still at a medium level in recent years, and production incentives are still acceptable [10]. Processing Profits - Recent processing profits have declined again [32]. Inventory - Qingdao's dry rubber inventory increased in the latest week mainly due to concentrated shipping schedules. The overall current inventory is not high, but there is an expectation of further inventory build - up in the future. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high [37]. - The exchange's ru warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and nr warehouse receipts were once at an extremely low level. The nr warehouse receipts dropped rapidly from a multi - year high in the third quarter of last year and are still at a multi - year low [47][53]. - The synthetic rubber inventory is neutral. The in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber rebounded after reaching a two - year low, and the trader inventory dropped to a low level [56]. - The inventory of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires has decreased marginally [59]. Supply Side - According to ANRPC, the global natural rubber production in the first three quarters of this year is expected to increase by 2.3%, and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.5%. The global production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.95 million tons in 2025 [63][65]. - China's natural rubber production from January to December 2024 was 911,400 tons, a 10% increase from the previous 854,000 tons [68]. - In 2024, rubber imports were lower than in previous years due to factors such as EU eudr diversion, overseas inventory replenishment, and reduced arbitrage demand. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) reached 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August 2025, imports were 664,000 tons, a 7.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024, but the growth rate has slowed down marginally [71]. - The large - cycle inflection point of supply - demand surplus has arrived, and the suppression of yield by production capacity has disappeared. The production capacity of natural rubber has reached an inflection point, providing a more solid bottom support, but production is affected by various factors such as weather, pests, and profit margins [81]. Demand Side - The operating rate of all - steel tires has remained stable and is at a medium level in recent years, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires is neutral [89]. - As of September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in tire outer - tube production was about 1.5%, with a marginal slight decline and a significantly slower growth rate compared to last year. As of September, the cumulative year - on - year increase in tire export volume was about 5.4%, which is relatively good but also lower than last year [93]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase compared to the same period last year. The large - scale infrastructure projects are beneficial for the long - term demand for heavy - trucks [97]. - Domestic passenger - car sales have performed well due to policy incentives, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are generally weak, and trade protectionism may further affect the market [102]. - Overall overseas automobile sales are mediocre, and trade wars have disrupted the consumption rhythm [105]. - The real estate market data from January to September 2025 continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, it will take time for the market to reverse [120]. - Road freight volume has been stable but is still lower than in 2019, reflecting a decline in demand and the substitution effect of railway and waterway transportation [124].