宏观与大类资产周报：全球市场在交易什么？-20251109

Domestic Insights - In October, China's exports unexpectedly turned negative, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, compared to a previous growth of 8.3%[22] - High-frequency data indicates a significant rebound in export orders from late October to early November, attributed to the implementation of trade agreements between China and the U.S.[19] - The Q4 export growth rate is expected to decline due to a high base from the previous year, alongside the "15th Five-Year Plan" aiming for stable growth policies in November and December[19] Overseas Insights - In October, the U.S. ADP employment numbers exceeded expectations with an increase of 42,000 jobs, while Challenger job cuts surged by 175% year-on-year to 153,074[20] - The liquidity crunch in the U.S. money market is primarily due to the government shutdown, which has forced the Treasury to increase cash balances from $300 billion to $1 trillion, creating a draining effect on the market[20] - The Supreme Court's rapid review of the legality of Trump's tariffs could lead to a ruling by the end of December, potentially accelerating the implementation of Section 232 tariffs[20] Asset Market Analysis - The recent high valuations in the U.S. AI sector have sparked global trader concerns, with historical bubbles linked to industry trends and monetary policy factors[21] - The potential for a market rebound is anticipated around May 2025, coinciding with a change in the Federal Reserve chair, which may signal stronger easing measures[21] - Short-term adjustments in U.S. stocks may not be complete, while domestic asset styles are trending towards balance[21]