公用事业行业周报（2025.11.03-2025.11.07）：长协电价预期上修，现货市场建设加速-20251109

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [4] Core Views - The expectation for long-term electricity prices has been revised upwards, alleviating pessimistic forecasts for the coal price [7] - The construction of the spot market is accelerating, with the National Grid's spot electricity market achieving full coverage ahead of schedule [7] - The utility sector is showing defensive attributes, with low-priced utility assets becoming increasingly attractive [7] - The report suggests that the utility sector remains a quality dividend asset worth allocating to in the long term [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report expresses optimism for the utility sector, highlighting the comparative advantages of dividend assets in the current low-interest-rate environment [7] - It emphasizes the need for further market-oriented price reforms to support the complex new power system, which will allow for better pricing of electricity attributes [7] - Specific recommendations include: - Thermal Power: Continued high growth in Q3 2025 profits, with improved commercial models [7] - Hydropower: Suggests investing in quality large hydropower projects due to low costs [7] - Nuclear Power: Strong long-term growth potential with reduced risks from market price declines [7] - Wind and Solar: Anticipated growth under carbon neutrality expectations, with a focus on companies with high wind power ratios [7] Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes significant increases in spot electricity prices, with Guangdong's average price up 6.3% year-on-year and Shanxi's up 55.0% [10] - Coal prices have risen significantly, with Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price at 817 RMB/ton, a 6.1% increase week-on-week [13] - The report highlights a high inflow into the Three Gorges Reservoir, with inflow rates up 66.7% year-on-year [31]