流动性紧张扰动市场，黄金偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - London gold oscillated slightly down to $4001 per ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.09%, inflation expectation was 2.28%, real interest rate rose slightly to 1.83%, the US dollar index fell 0.2% to 99.6, the S&P 500 index dropped 1.6%, the RMB oscillated, and Shanghai gold turned to a premium [2] - Gold prices are in a long-short game at the $4000 mark. After a 10% correction from the high, there are signs of bottom-fishing, but potential negative pressures suppress the rebound space of gold prices. The end of the US government shutdown would be short-term negative for gold, market expectations for a December interest rate cut have declined, the Sino-US tariff issue has eased marginally, and the US economic data is fair [3] - The domestic gold tax reform has been implemented, suppressing jewelry demand and potentially boosting investment demand. The domestic market performs better than the international market. The People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold reserves in October, but the increment slowed down, having limited positive impact on gold [4] - In the short term, the gold price is still in a correction trend, and the domestic gold maintains a small premium [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Changes in High-Frequency Gold Data - The domestic basis (spot - futures) was -3.62 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of -2.72 yuan and a change rate of 302.2%. The domestic and foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) was 3.50 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of 14.05 yuan and a change rate of -133.2% [12] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 89,616 kilograms, an increase of 1,800 kilograms or 2.0% from last week. The COMEX gold inventory was 37,729,455 ounces, a decrease of 438,591 ounces or -1.15% from last week [12] - The SPDR ETF's gold holding was 1042.06 tons, an increase of 2.86 tons or 0.28% from last week. The CFTC gold speculative net long position was 158,616 lots, a decrease of 1,867 lots or -1.2% from last week [12] 2. Tracking of Financial Market - Related Data 2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index fell 0.2%, and the US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.09%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, and the VIX index rose slightly to 19 [19] - The US overnight secured financing rate was 3.92%. Oil prices fell 2.2%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.28% [18] - The real interest rate rose to 1.83%, and the gold price oscillated flat. The spot commodity index closed down, and the US dollar index fell 0.2% [20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets fell, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.63%. Most developing - country stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.08% [22] - US and German bonds rose, with the US - German yield spread at 1.47%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.47%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.68% [29] - The euro appreciated 0.25%, the pound sterling appreciated 0.07%, the yen appreciated 0.37%, and the Swiss franc depreciated 0.07%. The US dollar index fell 0.2% to 99.6, and non - US currencies showed mixed movements [27][30] 3. Tracking of Gold Trading - Level Data - The data on gold speculative net long positions was suspended due to the government shutdown. The SPDR Gold ETF holding rose slightly to 1042 tons [33] - The RMB oscillated, and Shanghai gold turned to a premium. Gold and silver corrected, and the gold - silver ratio rose slightly to 82 [36] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - On Monday, the minutes of the Bank of Japan's meeting will be released. On Tuesday, the US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for October will be announced. On Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Bezant will give a speech [37] - On Thursday, the minutes of the Bank of Canada's interest rate meeting will be released. On Friday, China's October retail sales and industrial added value data will be announced [37]