10月通胀数据点评：CPI、PPI均回升

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of -0.1%[8] - The core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[11] - Food prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, contributing approximately -0.5 percentage points to the CPI, while energy prices fell by 2.4%, impacting the CPI by about -0.2 percentage points[11] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first rise in 2025[8] - The year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, influenced by low base effects and "anti-involution" measures[11] - In October, 30 sub-industries saw PPI month-on-month declines, with 17 remaining unchanged from the previous month[11] Group 3: Economic Outlook - CPI is expected to reach 2% year-on-year by year-end, while PPI is anticipated to turn positive, contingent on demand-side policy support[11] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools and an equivalent amount in government bond limits is expected to support short-term CPI and PPI recovery[11] - Domestic demand remains weak, as indicated by CPI being below 1% for 32 consecutive months and PPI being negative for 37 months[11]