成本支撑与需求羸弱博弈

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market Performance: From October 31 to November 7, 2025, the spot price of zinc oscillated upward, with the benchmark spot price reaching 22,650 yuan/ton on November 7, a 1.66% increase from October 30. In the futures market, the main zinc contract also trended upward, closing at 22,720 yuan/ton with a weekly gain of 1.63%. The current open interest of the main - month contract is around 112,500 lots [8]. - Macro - environment: Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur led to a series of agreements on tariffs and export controls, showing signs of trade friction mitigation. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in December is uncertain, pending inflation and employment data after the US government reopens. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal brings new development opportunities to the new energy and new materials sectors [8]. - Supply: Limited domestic zinc concentrate increments have caused a decline in spot processing fees. There is an increasing expectation of production cuts and shutdowns in November. Some northern mines have actively controlled production after completing their annual plans, leading to a temporary tightness in zinc ore supply and concerns about a contraction in refined zinc output [8]. - Demand: Seasonal weakness in demand persists. With the arrival of the construction off - season in the north, the operating rates of downstream industries such as galvanizing and zinc die - casting may further decline, and the pattern of spot discounts is difficult to reverse. Specifically, the estimated operating rate of zinc oxide manufacturers remains stable at about 51%, a Tianjin zinc oxide plant affected by environmental protection controls is expected to resume production next week; the estimated operating rate of the zinc alloy industry next week is 54%, with downstream raw material purchases only meeting rigid demand and new orders at the beginning of next month falling short of expectations; the operating rate of galvanized sheets is expected to continue to recover to about 63% [8]. - Inventory: Overall inventory is at a low level. As of November 6, LME zinc delivery inventory was reported at 34,100 tons, and SHFE inventory was 69,300 tons, showing a differentiated inventory level [8]. - Summary: The macro - sentiment is cautiously recovering. Overseas zinc ingots remain in short supply, and the export window will remain open in November. The cost support from processing fees and weak downstream demand create a tug - of - war for zinc prices, resulting in a wide - range oscillating trend [8]. - Strategy: Conduct range trading for the zn2601 contract, with a reference operating range of 21,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, or buy out - of - the - money call options [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - Hot News: US ADP data showed that private - sector employment increased by 42,000 in October, far exceeding the market expectation of 22,000 and the largest increase since July 2025. However, the September data was revised downward to a decrease of 32,000. This strong data alleviated market concerns about the weak labor market. This week, both the smelting and downstream sectors were affected. Tight raw materials and falling processing fees put pressure on many smelting enterprises, which have started production cuts. Northern downstream enterprises' operations and shipments were affected by environmental protection controls, leading to tightened raw material purchases. The spot market continued with a pattern of small - volume rigid - demand transactions. Traders actively bought export - eligible zinc ingot sources, driving up the premiums of some zinc ingot brands in Shanghai and Tianjin. Overseas, LME zinc inventory hit a new low again. Under the dominance of long - position funds, domestic and international zinc prices trended strongly this week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rhythm of zinc ingot exports and overseas warehousing [7]. - Influence Factor Prediction: The supply expectation is fluctuating (neutral), downstream demand is weak (bearish), inventory is differentiated (neutral), export expectation is good (bullish), market sentiment has no impact (neutral), cost - profit has no impact (bullish), and the macro - environment has no impact (neutral). Overall, the market is expected to oscillate [9]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure The zinc industry chain includes zinc ore, scrap zinc, refined zinc (including fire - refined zinc and electrolytic zinc), and downstream products such as zinc die - casting alloys, zinc - based alloys, galvanized products, zinc oxide, etc. Downstream applications cover various fields such as toys, hardware, construction, and automotive [11]. 3.3. Term Market The report presents multiple charts related to futures and spot prices, including active - contract futures closing prices, settlement prices, LME 3 - month zinc futures closing prices, refined zinc prices, and London zinc ingot spot prices, with data sources from WIND and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [15][19][25][33]. 3.4. Inventory The report shows charts of inventory data, including SHFE inventory, LME inventory, zinc finished - product inventory, zinc spot inventory, zinc ore port inventory, and zinc ore raw - material inventory days, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [35][40][46]. 3.5. Supply The supply - side content includes charts of global and domestic zinc ore production, zinc ore imports, zinc ore prices, zinc concentrate processing fees, refined zinc prices, refined zinc operating rates, global and Chinese refined zinc production, and refined zinc imports and exports, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [50][53][56][59][65][70]. 3.6. Demand - Downstream Product Data: The report provides production and operating - rate data for downstream products such as galvanized sheets, zinc alloys, and zinc oxide from June 2024 to February 2025, as well as charts of consumption structure, zinc ingot apparent and actual consumption, galvanized sheet production and operating rates, zinc alloy production and operating rates, zinc oxide operating rates and prices, and terminal - demand data for real estate, home appliances, and the automotive industry, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [74][75][80][84][90][94][99]. - 2025 Supply - Demand Balance: The report presents the supply - demand balance data for 2025, including production, imports, exports, net imports, total supply, apparent consumption, ending inventory, inventory changes, total demand, and supply - demand balance for each month [113]. 3.7. Others - Price and Ratio: The report includes charts of the Shanghai - London price ratio, zinc ingot main - contract basis, sulfuric acid prices, and zinc alloy prices, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [104][108].