外弱内强，内糖压力还未呈现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar market: Brazil's sugar production is strong, and the sugar production in the northern hemisphere, especially in India, is expected to increase significantly, with a possible rise in exports that could drag down sugar prices. However, Brazil's strong export data in October provides support to the market and may limit price declines [5]. - Domestic sugar market: The domestic sugar market is oscillating at a low level, supported by cost expectations and stricter policies on the control of syrup and pre - mixed powder. Currently, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price is slightly undervalued compared to the spot price and cost, but it is still higher than the dynamic cost of out - of - quota imported sugar. The upcoming start of sugar production in southern China may bring phased supply pressure [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking and Display - Spot price and basis in production areas: The spot market mainly trades sugar from the 2024/25 crushing season, with relatively high prices. Newly - listed beet sugar is slightly cheaper than old sugar, and trading volume is low. Attention should be paid to the listing rhythm and price changes of new sugar in Guangxi [11]. - Inter - month spreads: The 1 - 5 spread is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. - Domestic and foreign spreads: Due to low import costs, the processing profit margin of out - of - quota imported sugar is evident, and the in - quota import profit is substantial, exceeding 1,000 yuan [18]. 3.2 Overview of Key Market Data 3.2.1 International Market - Brazil: Brazil's sugar production decreased on a two - week basis, but the sugar - to - cane ratio is high, and the cumulative sugar production exceeds market expectations. In October, Brazil's sugar exports increased significantly, but the appreciation of the real is unfavorable for exports. Thailand and India are about to start production, and expected production increases will bring pressure to the market [22][28][31]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market - Production and consumption expectations: China's sugar production is expected to increase, and consumption is expected to rise slightly. The October supply - demand report made no adjustments, but the impact of typhoons in southern sugar - cane producing areas from September to October should be noted [35][37]. - Production and sales data in Guangxi and Yunnan: The production and sales data in Guangxi and Yunnan are turning bearish. The destocking speed in Yunnan has slowed down, and the import volume of sugar in China has increased, with the September import volume still expected to be higher year - on - year [39][41]. - Import of syrup and pre - mixed powder: Due to stricter policy control, the import of syrup and pre - mixed powder in China is expected to decrease [43]. - Downstream demand: Downstream demand is not bad but not outstanding either, and the downstream market lacks sufficient stimulation [46][49].