库存波动出口持续，沪锌本周偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The export window for zinc ingots is open, and some domestic zinc ingots are flowing out. The Shanghai zinc futures price has remained high, but the weak fundamental consumption is expected to suppress the subsequent zinc price. The Shanghai-London ratio is expected to remain stable next week [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - Supply - Side: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) decreased by 7.02% to 2650 yuan/metal ton. The import zinc concentrate TC continued to deteriorate, with the ordinary zinc ore offer at 60 - 100 dollars/dry ton. The galvanizing, zinc oxide, and die - casting zinc alloy开工 rates decreased by 4.19%, 0.96%, and 2.95% respectively. The decrease in the galvanizing开工 rate was due to environmental protection restrictions in some regions, which are expected to end soon. The die - casting zinc alloy开工 rate decreased due to production problems in some enterprises and the rising zinc price [6]. - Demand - Side: In the south, the improvement in weather led to increased orders for some terminal projects such as greenhouse pipes and transportation. Export orders were relatively stable due to tariff negotiations [6]. - Inventory: As of November 6, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.30 tons to 15.87 tons compared to November 3. The Shanghai and Guangdong inventories decreased due to downstream pick - up and exports. The bonded area inventory decreased to 0.38 tons, and the LME zinc inventory dropped to 0 tons. The spot trading was average, and the spot premium was expected to remain weak [6]. - Futures and Spot Prices: The Shanghai - London ratio rose to around 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. The London zinc price was under pressure from the strong US dollar but was supported by the low inventory. The Shanghai zinc price rose rapidly but fluctuated due to weak domestic consumption. In terms of spot prices, the Guangdong spot premium was expected to continue to fluctuate, the Shanghai spot premium was expected to remain volatile, and the Tianjin spot premium might rise slightly after the end of environmental protection restrictions [8][12][13]. 2. Supply Side - Processing Fee: In November, the domestic zinc ore processing fee declined rapidly, increasing the raw material procurement pressure on smelters. The SMM predicted a slight decrease in zinc ingot production in November compared to October, but the overall supply remained strong. The zinc ingot export window has been open since October and November, and the export expectation has boosted the domestic zinc price [16]. - Production and Import: From January to September 2025, the cumulative import of zinc concentrate was 400.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. In September, the import of zinc concentrate was 50.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.0% and a month - on - month increase of 8.2%. The import of refined zinc and zinc alloy decreased slightly year - on - year. In September, the import of refined zinc was 2.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 57.0% [32]. 3. Demand Side - Downstream Prices and Production: The report provided historical price trends of downstream products such as zinc alloy, zinc oxide, and hot - dip galvanizing. The weekly production and开工 rates of downstream industries such as galvanizing, die - casting, and zinc oxide were also presented, but specific changes were not detailed [36][39]. 4. Inventory Changes - Futures Inventory: The LME zinc inventory dropped to 0 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.10%. - Spot Inventory: The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the bonded area inventory also decreased due to exports [6][44][46]. 5. Macroeconomic Influences - The report presented historical trends of exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio, the US dollar index, and the US federal funds target rate, but did not elaborate on their specific impacts on the zinc market [51].