工业硅周报：供应端存减量预期-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market Performance: From October 31 to November 7, 2025, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated upward, with the benchmark product at 9,092 yuan/ton on November 7, almost unchanged from 9,087 yuan/ton on October 31. In the futures market, the main contract of industrial silicon rose, with the latest transaction price at 9,220 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.32%. The open interest of the main contract was about 268,300 lots [6]. - Supply: After the end of the wet - season, most manufacturers in the southwest main production areas reduced or halted production, leading to a significant decline in output. The operating rate in the northwest decreased slightly, and overall market supply decreased compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand: The polysilicon market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". High inventory and weak demand suppress the spot price, and leading enterprises cut production in November, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. The organic silicon DMC plants in Jiangxi and Yunnan have gradually resumed operation, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. The output of aluminum rods decreased this week, and the capacity utilization rate rebounded, with demand for industrial silicon remaining relatively stable. Export demand decreased in September [6]. - Cost, Profit and Inventory: The production cost of industrial silicon increased this week due to a slight increase in petroleum coke prices, and the prices of silica and electrodes in the southwest were basically stable. The electricity price in the southwest will rise next week, further increasing production costs. The profit of industrial silicon decreased slightly due to increased costs. The industry inventory is at a relatively high level, and with most southwest manufacturers halting production and low market prices, manufacturers are not willing to sell, resulting in little change in inventory. As of November 6, the inventory in the industrial silicon futures delivery warehouse was about 231,000 tons [6]. - Outlook: Although the operating rate of industrial silicon has decreased, due to the previous increase in the northwest, buyers' purchasing mentality is not active, and most purchase on - demand. It is expected that the short - term market price of industrial silicon will fluctuate slightly [6]. - Strategy: Consider going long on si2601 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 8,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton; or sell out - of - the - money call options; or adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy between industrial silicon and polysilicon [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Views and Hot News - Week - to - Week Views: Analyzed market performance, supply, demand, cost, profit, inventory, and provided outlook and trading strategies as mentioned above [6]. - Hot News: A polysilicon restructuring "consortium" platform is being planned, with a proposed fund of about 70 billion yuan, to be acquired in a "debt - assumption" way. TBEA denied the rumor of its polysilicon capacity being acquired. Relevant policies on new - energy power consumption and the electronic information manufacturing industry's growth plan were introduced [7]. 3.2 Industry Pattern - Industrial Chain: The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, etc., and downstream products such as organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloys, which are widely used in electronics, construction, and other fields [11]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - Spot Price and Basis: Provided price trends and basis data of different grades and regions of industrial silicon, including 553 and 421 grades in various ports and regions [13][24]. - Futures Contracts: Showed the closing and settlement prices of continuous and active contracts of industrial silicon [33]. 3.4 Inventory - Presented the inventory data of the industrial silicon industry, including factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory [47]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Profit and Cost: Displayed the comprehensive profit and cost of industrial silicon [55]. - Electricity Price: Showed the electricity prices in main and non - main production areas [62][76]. - Other Raw Materials: Presented the prices of silica, petroleum coke, electrodes, and silicon coal [90][95]. 3.6 Supply - Output: Showed the weekly and monthly output, operating rate, and monthly capacity of industrial silicon. There are also plans for new production capacity in multiple regions, with a total of 1.88 million tons of new capacity planned [108][115]. 3.7 Demand - Consumption Overview: Analyzed the consumption structure and quantity of industrial silicon in different fields such as alloys, polysilicon, etc. [118]. - Polysilicon: Showed the production, price, inventory, and cost of polysilicon [124][129]. - Organic Silicon: Presented the price, production, cost, and profit of organic silicon [132][137]. - Aluminum Rods: Showed the production, inventory, and price of aluminum rods, as well as the operating rate and production of aluminum alloys [142][149]. - Solar/PV: Displayed the cumulative production and price of solar cells [164]. 3.8 Import and Export - Industrial Silicon: Showed the import and export volume of industrial silicon [173]. - Polysilicon: Presented the import and export volume of polysilicon [178].