Report Title - "Hualian Futures Rebar Weekly Report: Weak Demand, Rebar Prices Weakly Operating" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The latest inventory of the five major steel products decreased at a slower rate compared to the previous period, with hot-rolled coils slightly accumulating inventory and other varieties slightly reducing inventory [8] - The profitability rate of steel mills dropped to the lowest point of the year, and the production cut efforts of steel mills increased. In addition, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas became stricter, leading to limited production in some steel mills. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline, and the output of the five major steel products decreased slightly [8] - The total apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased compared to the previous period. The demand is gradually shifting to the traditional off-season, which has an adverse impact on construction consumption. In addition, the latest single-month steel exports in October showed a year-on-year negative growth, and the impact of overseas trade barriers is gradually emerging, with demand likely to weaken marginally [8] - Recently, the profitability of steel mills has been poor, the steel profit has been continuously narrowing, and the production cut efforts of steel mills have increased. The steel supply has significantly contracted, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The downstream demand has shown a seasonal marginal weakening, with a decrease in demand from the construction and manufacturing industries. Coupled with the pressure on external demand exports, both supply and demand have weakened. Currently, the weak industrial supply-demand fundamentals have significantly suppressed rebar prices, and rebar prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8] - The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3080 [8] Summary by Section 1. Data Overview - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13% (a month-on-month increase of 1.38%), the capacity utilization rate was 87.81% (a month-on-month decrease of 0.80%), the profitability rate was 39.83% (a month-on-month decrease of 5.19%), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.3422 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 11,400 tons). The operating rate of 90 independent electric furnaces was 67.03% (a month-on-month decrease of 1.8%), the capacity utilization rate was 50.87% (a month-on-month decrease of 1.12%), and the scrap consumption was 249,900 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 13,100 tons). The total output of the five major steel products was 8.5674 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 185,500 tons), including 2.0854 million tons of rebar (a month-on-month decrease of 40,500 tons), 864,700 tons of wire rod (a month-on-month decrease of 33,400 tons), 3.1816 million tons of hot-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 54,000 tons), 838,400 tons of cold-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 21,300 tons), and 1.5973 million tons of medium and heavy plates (a month-on-month decrease of 36,300 tons) [10] - Demand: The average daily trading volume of traders (MA5) was 96,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 3,600 tons), the procurement volume of wire rods and rebars in Shanghai was 19,200 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 1,100 tons), the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1852 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 136,700 tons), the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was 3.143 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 175,900 tons), the apparent demand for wire rods was 888,300 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 102,300 tons), the apparent demand for cold-rolled coils was 853,200 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 36,900 tons), and the apparent demand for medium and heavy plates was 1.5994 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 43,100 tons) [10] - Inventory: The total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.0357 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 101,700 tons), including 5.9254 million tons of rebar (a month-on-month decrease of 99,800 tons), 4.1045 million tons of hot-rolled coils (a month-on-month increase of 38,600 tons), 1.3069 million tons of wire rod inventory (a month-on-month decrease of 23,800 tons), 1.745 million tons of cold-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 14,800 tons), and 1.9539 million tons of medium and heavy plates (a month-on-month decrease of 2,100 tons) [10] 2. Futures and Spot Market - As of November 7, 2025, the RB2601 contract closed at 3,034 yuan/ton, and the HC2601 contract closed at 3,245 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rebar was 156 yuan/ton, and the basis of Shanghai hot-rolled coils was 15 yuan/ton [17] - As of November 7, 2025, the RB01 - 05 contract spread closed at -63 yuan/ton, and the HC01 - 05 contract spread closed at -15 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai was -70 yuan/ton, and the screw - coil spread of the main contract was -211 yuan/ton [33]
需求偏弱，钢价偏弱运行
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-11-09 11:54