Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Soda Ash: Last week, soda ash production decreased by 10,700 tons week - on - week, the manufacturer's shipment rate dropped by 3.14%, and the upstream manufacturer's inventory increased by 12,200 tons. Some soda ash enterprises reduced their loads, and production slightly decreased. The inventory accumulation slowed down. Recently, the supply of soda ash has remained at a high level with narrow fluctuations. Although the enterprise profit has continued to shrink, there has been no significant production cut, and the supply pressure remains high. The daily melting volume of downstream glass has remained low, the improvement in soda ash demand is limited, and the manufacturer's inventory is difficult to deplete. The high supply has hit market confidence, and the futures market is under pressure and operating weakly. The 2601 contract is expected to run in the range of 1160 - 1280 [7]. - Glass: Last week, 4 coal - fired production lines were shut down, and 1 previously ignited production line started to produce glass. The weekly开工率 and weekly supply decreased. Affected by the news of the technological transformation and shutdown of production lines in the Shahe area, the market production and sales improved, and the manufacturer's inventory continued to decline. Currently, glass is dragged down by the weak real estate market, and the demand outlook is not optimistic. The market expects a reduction in supply. It is expected that there is still room for adjustment and repair in the industry's supply - demand relationship. However, the short - term peak - season consumption is lower than expected, the inventory remains high, and later the consumption will gradually enter the off - season, so the improvement in the supply - demand contradiction may be limited. The 2601 contract is expected to run in the range of 1050 - 1160 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Views and Strategies - Soda Ash - Inventory: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, including 814,600 tons of light soda ash and 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 39,200 tons, a rise of 2.34%. The production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, and the inventory of some enterprises increased [7]. - Supply: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 74,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,700 tons, a decline of 1.41%. The production of light soda ash was 33,121 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 41,480 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. Some enterprises reduced their loads, and the supply decreased slightly [7]. - Demand: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73,390 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.14%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 98.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65 percentage points. During the week, the soda ash enterprise equipment fluctuated slightly, the production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, the inventory of some enterprises increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate decreased slightly [7]. - Glass - Inventory: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.654 million weight boxes, a decline of 4.03%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.05%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days compared with the previous period [8]. - Supply: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.1261 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25% and a year - on - year increase of 1.87% [8]. - Profit: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 172.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 78.10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.65 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 1.77 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.86 yuan/ton [8]. - Demand: As of October 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing orders were divided this period. The average order days of enterprises in the north increased slightly, and the proportion of some engineering orders increased. In the south, most orders remained flat or even decreased in some cases, and the overall competition was still fierce [8]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - Soda Ash: The upstream of the soda ash industry chain includes natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. The mid - stream is soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash), and the downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [10]. - Flat Glass: The upstream of the flat glass industry chain includes raw materials such as quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and auxiliary materials (clarifiers, color - mixing agents), as well as fuels like coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), and petroleum coke (16%). The mid - stream is flat glass (float glass, other methods such as calendering), and the downstream includes deep - processed products such as tempered glass, laminated glass, hollow glass, and coated glass, which are mainly used in the real estate (75%), automotive (18%), and electronic and electrical (7%) industries [11]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures and Spot Prices - Glass: As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1091, and the North China basis was 39 yuan/ton [15]. - Soda Ash: As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of the SA main contract was 1210, and the North China basis was 90 yuan/ton [18]. - Contract Spread - Glass: As of November 7, 2025, the FG1 - 5 spread closed at - 134 yuan/ton. - Soda Ash: As of November 7, 2025, the SA1 - 5 spread closed at - 84 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Inventory - Glass: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.654 million weight boxes, a decline of 4.03%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.05%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days compared with the previous period. The inventory in major regions such as North China, East China, South China, and Central China decreased [24]. - Soda Ash: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, including 814,600 tons of light soda ash and 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 39,200 tons, a rise of 2.34%. The production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, and the inventory of some enterprises increased [33]. 3.5 Supply - Side - Glass: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.1261 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25% and a year - on - year increase of 1.87% [37]. - Soda Ash: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 74,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,700 tons, a decline of 1.41%. The production of light soda ash was 33,121 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 41,480 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. Some enterprises reduced their loads, and the supply decreased slightly. As of November 6, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China was - 43.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.80 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash in the combined - soda process was - 174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton [47][50]. 3.6 Demand - Side - Glass: As of October 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing orders were divided this period. The average order days of enterprises in the north increased slightly, and the proportion of some engineering orders increased. In the south, most orders remained flat or even decreased in some cases, and the overall competition was still fierce [54]. - Soda Ash: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73,390 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.14%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 98.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65 percentage points. The enterprise production and sales were relatively balanced, the inventory of some enterprises increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate decreased slightly [65].
纯碱玻璃周报：基本面偏弱，玻碱反弹乏力-20251109
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-11-09 11:58