周观：债市震荡格局难破，如何应对？（2025年第43期）

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market remained in a box - shock range this week. Despite the lower - than - expected net Treasury bond purchase scale announced this week, the central bank's support for liquidity remains unchanged. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to continue the narrow - range shock pattern this year, and the impact of the redemption fee rate new rules will be mitigated. A rapid rise in interest rates due to the new rules could present a good entry opportunity [1][16]. - Last week, the monetary policy orientations of the US, Europe, and Japan tended towards marginal balance. After the China - US Busan dialogue, the overall overseas certainty decreased marginally, and the technology valuation faced short - term pressure. However, in 2026, with the change of the Fed chairman, the Fed is likely to maintain a loose monetary policy, and the technology market may continue until the second half of 2026 [2][19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week View 3.1.1 Analysis of the Central Bank's Treasury Bond Purchase - From November 3 to 7, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 1.35bp from 1.7925% to 1.8060%. Market sentiment, the central bank's bond - buying scale, the stock - bond relationship, and the expected implementation of the new fund fee rules all affected the yield fluctuations [1][11][12]. - The bond market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations. The impact of the new redemption fee rate rules will be mitigated by the transition period, and the central bank's support for liquidity remains strong. A rapid rise in interest rates due to the new rules will create a good entry opportunity [16]. 3.1.2 Analysis of US Bond Yield Trends - Last week, the monetary policy orientations of the US, Europe, and Japan tended towards marginal balance. After the China - US Busan dialogue, overseas uncertainty increased, and risk - aversion sentiment emerged. The technology market may face short - term pressure but is expected to recover in 2026 [2][19]. - In the US, the commercial crude oil inventory increased significantly in the week of October 31, 2025, mainly due to loose supply and insufficient demand. The ISM manufacturing PMI index in October was lower than expected, indicating weak manufacturing vitality. The Fed's internal differences on the December interest - rate cut path intensified, with different stances from radical doves, moderate doves, and hawks [2][20][24]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - In the open - market operations from November 3 to 7, 2025, the net investment was - 15,722 billion yuan, mainly due to the large - scale maturity of reverse repurchases [35]. - The money - market interest rates showed a downward trend overall this week [36][37]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macro Data Tracking - The total commercial housing transaction area showed mixed trends. Steel prices declined across the board, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends [57][58][61]. - The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, 7 - day annualized yield of Yu'E Bao, and vegetable price index all had their own trends [62][65][70]. - The VIX panic index led the rise, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the fall. US bond yields increased overall compared to half a month ago, and the term spreads between 10 - year and 2 - year US bonds, and between 10 - year and 3 - month US bonds decreased [74][79][80]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 32 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 91.607 billion yuan, including 45.211 billion yuan of refinancing bonds and 46.396 billion yuan of new special bonds. The net financing was - 33.641 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive, highway, and shantytown renovation projects [89]. - Five provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, with Yunnan, Shaanxi, Ningbo, Fujian, and Inner Mongolia ranking in the top five in terms of issuance amount [96]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the stock of local bonds was 53.78 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 40.6417 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.76%. The top three provinces with active local bond trading were Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Shandong, and the top three active terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [104]. - The overall yield of local bonds declined this week [109]. 3.3.3 Local Bond Issuance Plan for the Month The local bond issuance plans of various provinces and cities for this month are presented, including the planned issuance amounts of Chongqing, Shandong, and other places [112]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 316 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 288.652 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 198.141 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 90.511 billion yuan, an increase of 106.811 billion yuan compared to last week [110]. - Specifically, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 9.80 billion yuan, and the net financing of industrial bonds was 91.491 billion yuan [111][115]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of various credit bond types decreased this week, with short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds all showing downward trends [122]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 592.039 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different ratings and bond types [123]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity - The yield of China Development Bank bonds increased across the board this week [124]. - The yields of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes showed mixed trends, while the yields of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally declined [124][125][127]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed this week [130][132][134]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes generally narrowed this week [137][140].