采收尾声，内棉成本支撑转入供需矛盾

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The international cotton market still faces downward pressure, with ongoing concerns about international trade tariffs but showing positive development. The supply of U.S. cotton is increasing, adding to the supply pressure. The market is waiting for macro - factors to boost demand [9]. - In the domestic cotton market, the harvest of domestic seed cotton is nearing completion, and the market has digested the high - cost situation. The demand side shows that the operating rate of downstream textile enterprises is lower than the same period last year and continues to decline. The industrial raw material inventory of cotton is decreasing, indicating low purchasing enthusiasm, and the digestion speed of yarn inventory is slow. Affected by inventory pressure, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is expected to be under pressure [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情概述 - Important Information: International news includes the ongoing U.S. government "shutdown", potential changes in USDA reports, progress in China - U.S. tariff trade consultations, and hearings on Trump's tariff policies. Domestic news shows new cotton listings, changes in seed cotton prices, import volume changes, and fluctuations in PMI and logistics indices [5]. - Price Situation: Futures and spot prices of cotton and related products mostly showed a downward or fluctuating and pressured trend this week. Cotton import profits are still relatively large, and the basis of cotton and yarn showed a trend of strengthening and then weakening [7]. - Supply - Demand Factors: Globally, cotton production and inventory are adjusted, and U.S. cotton weekly export net sales decline. Domestically, production is expected to increase slightly, commercial inventory decreases, import volume shows a downward trend, downstream operating rates decline slightly, and textile export volume decreases [8]. Spot Market Price and Spread - Price Trend: Spot cotton and yarn prices are slowly declining, while imported cotton prices are rising from a low level. The basis of cotton and yarn is slowly declining due to the high - level rebound of futures prices [14][20]. - Internal and External Spreads: Cotton import profits are still relatively large [23]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - USDA Data: In September, global cotton production was raised, and the ending inventory was lowered. The 10 - month data was not released due to the U.S. government shutdown [28]. - Export Situation: U.S. upland cotton exports decreased month - on - month [31]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - Supply - Demand Data: In October, domestic cotton supply - demand data was not adjusted, and USDA did not release relevant data [35]. - Inventory Situation: Domestic cotton commercial inventory is accumulating, and port inventory is rising [38]. - Import Situation: Cotton imports increased month - on - month, but the overall import volume decreased [41]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of domestic textile enterprises decreased [44]. - Inventory and Profit: Textile enterprises have high yarn inventory, low raw material purchasing enthusiasm, and still face losses in processing profits [47]. - Import and Export: Cotton yarn imports did not increase significantly, and textile exports slowed down slightly [50]. Exchange Rate Trend This week, the U.S. dollar index rebounded from a low level, and the RMB exchange rate is still appreciating [54].