港口浮仓攀升，甲醇走势或继续偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is under significant supply pressure, with high domestic开工率 and production, and continuously high import volumes. The demand is weak, with most downstream industries'开工率 showing a continuous decline. Port methanol inventory is at an extremely high level, with tight tank capacity and rising floating storage. As a result, the methanol price may continue to seek support downward. Key factors to monitor include domestic port inventory and the operation of MTO devices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint and Strategy - For unilateral and options trading, adopt a bearish strategy. In options trading, sell call options [7]. - MA unilateral strategy: Short MA509. The price is under pressure and falling. As of November 06, the price of MA601 was 2,125 yuan/ton. The logic is high domestic production, record - high imports, average demand, and extremely high port inventory, leading to a bearish operation recommendation [11]. - PP - 3MA strategy: Short the PP - 3MA spread. The spread is in a rebound trend. As of November 06, the spread of the January contract was 96 yuan/ton. The logic is that the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol, and MTO profit is under pressure. However, in the short term, methanol is bearish due to extremely high inventory. The operation recommendation is to short on rallies and wait and see for now [14]. 3.2 Methanol Supply and Demand Overview 3.2.1 Supply - Inventory: As of November 5, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,400 tons or 2.75%. The overall inventory shows a slight downward trend in some areas, but port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The port inventory was 1,517,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,600 tons or 0.70% [8][111][113]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: In November, the weekly data of China's methanol production is expected to be around 2,008,400 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 88.51%, an increase from the current period. From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the methanol production was 1,992,055 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,860 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.36% [8][69]. - Imports: The estimated arrival plan of methanol import samples is 436,100 tons, including 368,100 tons of visible imports and 68,000 tons of non - visible imports. From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 387,000 tons, including 345,800 tons of foreign vessels (232,000 tons of visible and 113,800 tons of non - visible) and 41,200 tons of domestic trade vessels [8][76]. - New Capacity in 2025: China's new methanol capacity in 2025 is about 8.6 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 8.4%. Most of the new devices are equipped with downstream facilities such as MTO, acetic acid, and BDO [78][79]. 3.2.2 Demand - MTO Industry: The MTO industry's开工率 is 90.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted, the load of Shandong Luxi was at a low level, and the load of Xinjiang Hengyou increased. After the offset, the olefin industry's开工 continued to decline this week [86]. - Traditional Downstream Industries: The traditional demand is poor, and the开工率 is low. The开工率 of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and chloride industries is expected to rise, while the开工 rate of dimethyl ether is expected to remain flat [8][89]. - Downstream Procurement and Orders: As of November 5, 2025, the pending orders of sample enterprises were 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.57% [105]. - New Downstream Capacity: In 2025, there are new production capacities in various downstream industries such as methane chloride, glacial acetic acid, formaldehyde, and others [107]. 3.3 Price and Spread - Spot Price and Basis: As of November 06, the spot price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,080 yuan/ton, and the basis relative to the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton [18]. - Domestic Spread and Freight: Data on the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia and the spread and freight between Inner Mongolia and Dongying are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [19]. - International Methanol and Natural Gas Price: Data on international methanol prices (including Southeast Asia CFR, China CFR, and Rotterdam FOB) and international natural gas prices (including European and Henry Hub) are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [23][25]. - Inter - contract Spread: Data on the spread between methanol 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 contracts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [27][30]. - Related Product Ratio: Data on the ratio of methanol to urea and methanol to liquefied gas (based on the main contracts) are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [34]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Profit - Import Profit: The import profit remains in a loss, currently at - 30 yuan/ton [8]. - Coal - based Methanol Production Profit: The loss of coal - based methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia has widened, currently at - 227 yuan/ton [8]. - Downstream Profit: The downstream profit is in a large loss. The profit of East China MTO remains in a loss, currently at - 808 yuan/ton [8].