Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - Due to supply constraints, it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a rising or oscillatingly strong trend. The strategy is to continue taking long positions in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2601 being 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View and Strategy - Macro: In October, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.7 trillion yuan, a 0.1% increase. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a 0.8% decrease, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 1.4% increase for the fifth consecutive month. The US government shutdown led to the non - release of the October non - farm payroll data. Economists expect a 60,000 decrease in non - farm employment and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [5]. - Supply: Bauxite mining in northern China has not resumed. Some alumina plants in the region have reduced their operations. A large alumina enterprise in Hebei shut down 2 roasting furnaces on the evening of October 28 and plans to resume gradually on October 31. Alumina inventory is continuously accumulating, while the operating rate and supply of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable [5]. - Demand: Recent electrolytic aluminum consumption has been generally good. The automobile industry is relatively prosperous, and the power grid - related orders are expected to be released rapidly. Overall, domestic demand is expected to continue to improve [5]. - Inventory: Last week, LME aluminum futures inventory increased slightly, while domestic social inventory continued to decline slightly and is expected to continue to decrease [5]. - View: Supply disturbances have not changed the weak fundamentals of alumina. Due to supply constraints, the aluminum price is expected to maintain a rising or oscillatingly strong trend [5]. - Strategy: Continue taking long positions in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2601 being 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Graphs of domestic aluminum spot and futures prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premium and discount, LME aluminum price trends, and China's aluminum ingot import profit are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [9][13]. 3. Supply and Inventory - Bauxite: In September 2025, China imported 1,588 million tons of bauxite, a 38.3% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the import volume was 15,731 million tons, a 32% year - on - year increase. In 2024, China imported 15,876.7 million tons of bauxite, a 12.3% year - on - year increase. Guinea and Australia are the main sources. In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 488.21 million tons, a 2.32% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative production was 4,574.32 million tons, with a significant slowdown in production growth. Recent domestic bauxite port inventory has decreased [20][25]. - Alumina: In September 2025, China's alumina production was 799.9 million tons, an 8.7% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 6,856.0 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase. From January to September, China exported 200 million tons of alumina, a 61.8% year - on - year increase, with 25 million tons in September, an 82.2% year - on - year increase. As of September 2025, the domestic metallurgical alumina production capacity reached 11,032 million tons, an increase of 630 million tons from the end of last year. More new production capacity is expected to be put into operation from the end of 2025 to Q1 2026. In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity release, and there are still many projects to be put into operation in 2026 and later. Overseas, there were approximately 500 million tons of new production capacity put into operation, and at least 870 million tons of new production capacity are expected in 2026 [34][35][38]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.5 million tons; the operating capacity was 4,444.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 92 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 99.41%, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. In September 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.08 million tons, a 0.9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the global primary aluminum production was 55.113 million tons. In September 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.81 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 33.97 million tons, a 2.2% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China imported 246,800 tons of primary aluminum, a 14.36% month - on - month increase and an 80.07% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 1.9618 million tons. As of November 6, 2025, the LME futures inventory was 550,500 tons, and China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 607,000 tons [42][53][62]. 4. Primary Processing and End - Market - Alloy Ingot: In September 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 177,600 tons, a 17.1% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 1.4116 million tons, a 15.9% year - on - year increase [68]. - Aluminum Products: In September 2025, China's aluminum product production was 590,000 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative production was 4.9768 million tons, the same as the previous year [71]. - Aluminum Import and Export: In September 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of unforged aluminum and aluminum products, a 35.4% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 3.01 million tons, a 5.7% year - on - year increase. In September, the export volume was 520,000 tons, a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 4.52 million tons, an 8.1% year - on - year decrease [78]. - Downstream Demand: The report presents graphs of global aluminum downstream demand structure, green demand forecast, global photovoltaic and wind power installation capacity forecast, global new energy vehicle sales forecast, China's real estate market situation, China's new energy vehicle production, and power engineering investment, but no specific analysis is provided [81][87][92]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - Global Supply - Demand Balance: The report provides global and Chinese electrolytic aluminum supply - demand balance tables from 2021 to 2027. In 2025, overseas alumina had 6.6 million tons of new production capacity (including restarted capacity), with 4 million tons of newly invested capacity. The net increase in production capacity in 2025 was 4.02 million tons. It is expected that in 2025, the global market will maintain a tight - balance situation, with a slight shortage overseas and a slight surplus in China [103][104][105]. - Industrial Chain Structure: No specific content is provided.
受供应约束，铝价有望继续强势
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-11-09 12:12