烧碱：震荡为主，PVC：趋势偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - The market for caustic soda is expected to be mainly volatile. The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists, and the market continues to short the chlor - alkali profit. The alumina industry's future production reduction and new production expectations for caustic soda may offset each other. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the expectation of alumina production reduction [5]. 2.2 PVC - The trend of PVC is expected to be weak. The high - production structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the demand from the real - estate - related downstream is still weak. Exports are affected by policies such as anti - dumping duties in India and BIS certification. Although there may be supply - side production cuts during the peak maintenance season next year, the current high - production and high - inventory structure remains unchanged [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The cheapest deliverable price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,438 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 01 is strong, and the 1 - 5 month spread is weakening. The export market still has support but faces structural adjustment. The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is rising, and the flake - liquid caustic soda spread is declining. The 50 - 32 caustic soda spread is lower than the evaporation cost, suppressing the spot market [12][15][26]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 414,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 6.29% and a year - on - year increase of 57.84%. In 2025, the actual capacity expansion of caustic soda will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2 - 3%. The electricity price in Shandong Province has increased in November, providing cost support for caustic soda. The rebound of liquid chlorine has led to a decline in caustic soda costs [38][39][44]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - The alumina industry has a situation of declining capacity utilization, rising inventory, and shrinking profits. There is an expectation of production reduction in the future, but the new production capacity at the end of the year to early next year will drive up the rigid demand and stockpiling demand, especially the trough - filling demand before production. The pulp industry has continuous capacity expansion and is in the peak demand season, but the terminal profit is continuously compressed. The finished paper industry has stable production. The viscose staple fiber industry has stable production, and the printing and dyeing industry has rising production. The water treatment industry has stable production, and the ternary precursor industry has rising production [69][77][83]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis is oscillating strongly, and the 1 - 5 month spread is oscillating weakly [98]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises this week is 80.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.49% and a year - on - year increase of 2.67%. In 2025, there will be 2.2 million tons of new PVC capacity put into production, and there will be no new capacity in 2026. The profit of the northwest chlor - alkali integrated device is at a low level, and winter is the traditional off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced inventory, while social inventory is at a high level. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall downstream PVC production has decreased month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative PVC export was 2.9216 million tons. India is still the most important destination for China's PVC exports, but anti - dumping duties and BIS certification are putting pressure on exports. PVC warehouse receipts are continuously rising [103][108][114].