供应需求及库存行情走势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of November 7, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, and the fundamental situation remained relatively loose. The monthly spread changes were relatively small this week [20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of November 2, there were 2 ships departing from New Zealand in November, all heading to mainland China. It is estimated that 2 ships will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an expected arrival volume of 1.04 million cubic meters in November [4][7]. - New Zealand log shipping schedule data shows two ships departing on November 2, 2025, with a load of 42,000 and 40,820 JAS m3 respectively, both heading to Lanshan Port in China and expected to arrive on November 21 - 22, 2025 [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending October 31, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 21,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 300 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2608 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 17,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 304,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 47,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou Port had about 310,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 40,600 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 198,700 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 55,700 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0737 million cubic meters, a decrease of 15,800 cubic meters from the previous week [5][13]. - Inventory data shows detailed changes in the inventory of different ports and timber species over different time periods, including week - on - week and four - week - on - four - week changes [14]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of November 7, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. The monthly spreads were as follows: the 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 14 yuan per cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 27 yuan per cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 13 yuan per cubic meter [20]. 3.4 Price and Spread - Log spot price data shows the prices and price changes of different tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu regions over different time periods, including week - on - week and four - week - on - four - week changes [24]. - The regional price spreads of mainstream timber species show the price differences of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions [26][35]. - The price spreads between tree species and specifications show the price differences between different tree species and specifications [43][45]. 3.5 Other - As of the week ending November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,063 points, an increase of 97 points (+4.9%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 815 points, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,495.10 points, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous week [5][58]. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index remained at a relatively high level recently. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.123, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.7% to 1.777 [5][58].