能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20251109

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: November 9, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core View - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber is volatile, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The production capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased. In the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, without chasing short positions. The nr - br spread is expected to oscillate at a high level [2][4]. - Butadiene is in a weak operating state. In the short term, the low absolute price drives downstream replenishment, leading to improved trading and price stabilization. In the medium - long term, supply pressure remains the primary contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under significant pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Zhenhua New Materials were shut down for maintenance, while the butadiene rubber plant of Sichuan Petrochemical restarted. The production capacity utilization rate further declined. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 26,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31%, and the production capacity utilization rate was 66.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88 percentage points. It is expected that Yangzi Petrochemical's butadiene rubber plant will restart in the next cycle, and the Maoming butadiene plant and Zhejiang Transfar's 120,000 - ton/year rare - earth butadiene rubber plant are scheduled for maintenance at the end of November and in December respectively [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly during the cycle. It is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will remain stable with a slight downward trend in the next cycle. The production of most enterprises will remain stable to meet order demands, but it is reported that some enterprises have maintenance plans in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall production capacity utilization rate. In terms of alternative demand, the current spread between the nr - br main contracts remains high, and the alternative demand also remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of November 5, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15%. During the cycle, the supply of raw material butadiene was sufficient, and the negotiation focus continued to decline. Under the continuous negative drag of the cost side, industry players generally had a clear expectation of the continuous decline of the recent market. Downstream price - pressing procurement led to a significant decline in the negotiation focus of private resources. At the same time, the output was affected by the maintenance of some production enterprises, the circulating supply of goods was limited, resulting in the spot offer being significantly higher than that of private resources, and the sales performance was blocked. The inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both decreased [5]. 3.1.4 Valuation - Currently, the static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9,500 - 10,400 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support for the lower - end valuation to the nr - br spread providing support for the lower - end valuation. For the upper - end valuation, 10,300 - 10,400 yuan/ton on the futures market may be the high point of the fundamental upper - end valuation. When the main contract BR2501 has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (the single - month holding cost is around 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity of holding spot and shorting futures on the market, and hedging positions will gradually increase the pressure on the upside space of the futures market [5]. 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - In the current cycle (from October 31 to November 6, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 109,200 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 4.85%. During the week, the plants of Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Guangzhou Petrochemical, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical remained shut down, but the plants of Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Fushun Petrochemical, and Sichuan Petrochemical resumed production, resulting in a continuous increase in output. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be around 112,500 tons, continuing to increase from the current cycle. There are no new plant shutdown and maintenance plans in the next cycle, and the previously restarted plants will stably release output, leading to a continuous recovery of the output of domestic operating plants. At the same time, pay close attention to the output of Guangxi Petrochemical [6]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, as butadiene plants undergo maintenance in November, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber procurement will decrease. In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only be maintained at a constant level, with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has slightly increased, and the rigid demand for butadiene procurement remains unchanged [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (from October 30 to November 6, 2025), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples fluctuated slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.67% from last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased by 3.71% month - on - month compared with last week. During the cycle, some plants resumed production, and at the same time, the significant decline in the market led to a slowdown in the trading rhythm, resulting in inventory accumulation for some suppliers. The inventory of sample ports decreased by 6.88% month - on - month compared with last week. Although there were imported vessels arriving at the port during the week, the normal consumption of downstream raw material inventories led to a decrease in the inventory of sample ports. Although the short - term tradable supply is limited, the import volume remains high, and merchants' sentiment remains cautious. Pay attention to future inventory changes [8].