聚烯烃：趋势仍有压力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week's PP trend remains weak, and the PE trend still faces pressure. Trade - war, oil - price factors, high - supply factors, and low - profit factors of downstream processed products together create downward pressure on the PP trend. For PE, raw - material crude oil is suppressed, and the supply - demand pattern is not optimistic [6][8]. - In the long - term, the downward - driving factors of PP are difficult to fundamentally resolve, and the trend remains weak. The future supply pressure of PE will increase while the demand is weak, and the market still has pressure [5][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 View Overview PP - Supply: This week, China's PP production was 79.65 tons, a 0.92% increase from last week and a 19.06% increase from the same period last year. Next week, the planned maintenance loss of PP is expected to decline significantly, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise to around 79.2% [7]. - Demand: The average starting rate of the PP downstream industry showed an upward trend this week. With the end of "Double 11", the demand for packaging industries such as CPP and PP non - woven fabrics slowed down. The starting rate of the modified PP and PP pipe industries increased. Next week, the starting rate of PP product industries may decline slightly [7]. - View: The market is suppressed by weak demand and high supply, and the long - term trend is weak. The base difference and monthly difference are weak, and the short - term valuation is neutral to weak. The low profits of MTO and PDH devices limit the market's downward space [5]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillating weakly, with an upper pressure of 6500 - 6550 and a lower support of 6200 - 6250; short - term cross - period trading is to buy 05 and sell 01; no cross - variety trading is recommended [5]. PE - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese PE production enterprises is 82.59%, a 1.72% increase from the previous period. Due to the restart of some devices, the capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month [8]. - Demand: The overall starting rate of the PE downstream industry is mixed. The starting rate of agricultural films has reached its annual high, with limited room for further increase. The starting rates of PE packaging films, PE pipes, and PE hollow products have declined [8]. - View: Raw - material crude oil is under pressure, and PE lacks cost support. The supply - demand pattern is not optimistic, and the future supply pressure will increase while the demand is weak, so the market still has pressure [8]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillating weakly, with an upper pressure of 6900 and lower supports of 6800 and 6600 for the 01 contract; no cross - period and cross - variety trading is recommended [8]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - Price Difference: The powder - granule price difference of PP rebounds, and the copolymer - drawing price difference weakens [17]. - Capacity Utilization: The average capacity utilization rate of PP this period is 77.78%, a 0.72% month - on - month increase; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec is 75.77%, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease [23]. - Device Maintenance: In November, the PP maintenance is relatively low, and the restart of maintenance devices suppresses the rebound space [24]. - New Capacity: In 2025, the potential new PP capacity is 470.5 tons, with a capacity increase of 10.5%. The production pressure this year is relatively large [26]. - Inventory: The production and trader inventories of PP have increased month - on - month. The total commercial inventory of Chinese PP is 89.31 tons, a 2.19% increase from the previous period [28][32]. - Cost: The oil price has declined, and the oil - based production cost of PP has decreased [33]. - Profit: The profits of oil - based and PDH - based PP production have increased, but the overall profit levels of MTO, PDH, oil - based, and coal - based devices are still low [39][40]. - Downstream: The starting rate of BOPP is stable, the order days decline, and the finished - product inventory is at a high level; the profit of BOPP has slightly recovered but is still at a low level over the years. The starting rate of tape master rolls is stable, and the order days decline. The starting rate of plastic weaving remains the same, and the order days increase. The starting rate of non - woven fabrics remains the same, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high. The starting rate of CPP increases, and the order days increase [41][44][48][50][55][58]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - Price Difference: The L - LL price difference of PE oscillates and declines, and the HD - LL price difference oscillates and rises [67]. - Capacity Utilization and Output: The starting rate and output of PE have declined month - on - month. This week, the total PE output in China is 66.07 tons, a 2.67% increase from last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 82.59%, a 1.72% increase from the previous period [68][70]. - Device Maintenance: In November, the PE maintenance loss is less than that in October [71]. - New Capacity: In 2025, the potential new PE capacity is 543 tons, with a capacity increase of 15.2% [72]. - Inventory: The production - enterprise inventory of PE has increased month - on - month, and the social inventory has decreased month - on - month. The sample inventory of Chinese PE production enterprises is 49.02 tons, a 17.84% increase from the previous period [74][77]. - Cost: The oil price has declined, and the oil - based production cost of PE has decreased [79]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PE production devices has declined [86]. - Downstream: The starting rate and order days of agricultural films have increased month - on - month; the starting rate and order days of packaging films have decreased month - on - month; the starting rates of pipes and hollow products are lower than the same period in previous years [88][89][90].