10月至今，煤价涨超百元、板块涨幅第1

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [13][14]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price has surged by 104 CNY/ton in just one month, reaching 809 CNY/ton, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [1][8]. - The report emphasizes a "stop-and-go" upward trend in coal prices, suggesting that any increase will not be linear but will involve periods of stabilization and correction [1][8]. - The demand for coal is expected to rise seasonally with the onset of heating in northern regions, while supply remains limited due to safety inspections and production constraints [1][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The coal sector has seen a significant recovery, with the coal index rising by 4.43% recently, outperforming the broader market [2][80]. - The report notes a stark contrast in performance, with the coal sector previously lagging behind other sectors earlier in the year [2]. Price Dynamics - The report highlights that the coal price is influenced by three main factors: production cuts, low port inventories, and strong seasonal demand, which collectively catalyze rapid price increases [15][39]. - As of November 7, 2025, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports reached a new high of 809 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 39 CNY/ton [9][39]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that coal production has been constrained due to regulatory measures and safety inspections, leading to a continuous decline in output over the past three months [5][10]. - The demand for coal has exceeded expectations due to extreme weather conditions, which have significantly increased electricity consumption [5][10]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on high-quality stocks in the coal sector, particularly those with strong fundamentals and growth potential, while also considering second-tier stocks as coal prices continue to rise [6][14]. - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others that are expected to benefit from the ongoing price increases and market dynamics [14][6].