能源化工玻璃纯碱周度报告-20251109

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Glass: Short - term is volatile and weak, medium - term is a volatile market. The short - term pressure mainly comes from the under - expected production cut. Although the market transaction was good this week, the futures market was still weak. In the long - term, the policy factors of anti - deflation and anti - involution are not clearly falsified, so the long - term trend should not be overly bearish. [2] -纯碱: The trend is weak. The problems of high production and high inventory in the soda ash industry have not slowed down but increased. It depends on either large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass industry to drive positive market feedback. [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - This week, there were slight changes in the float glass production lines. Four production lines in Shahe were shut down, and one in Dalian was put into production. As of November 6, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines in China (200,000 tons per day), with 222 in production and 74 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass was 159,100 tons, a 1.33% decrease compared to 30 days ago. [2] - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 11,680 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines was 13,910 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of potentially newly ignited production lines was 14,790 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of potentially restarted old production lines was 10,030 tons; and the total daily melting volume of potentially cold - repaired production lines was 7,950 tons per day. [6][7][8] - After the production cut in Shahe, the further production cut space within the year is limited. Currently, the in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons per day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons per day. [11] Demand - As of October 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.8 days, a 4.0% increase month - on - month and a 16.1% decrease year - on - year. The deep - processing orders were differentiated, with a slight increase in the north and flat or decreased orders in the south. [2] Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.654 million heavy boxes month - on - month (4.03% decrease) and a 29.05% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days from the previous period. [2] - The production cut in Shahe drove the improvement of spot transactions and a slight decrease in inventory. This year, the inventory reduction started in the third quarter and the intensity in the fourth quarter was not strong, different from the previous years when the main inventory reduction period was in the fourth quarter. [29][32] Price and Profit - Some manufacturers slightly increased prices, while most remained unchanged. The price in Shahe was around 1,120 - 1,140 yuan/ton; in Hubei, central China, it was 1,100 - 1,140 yuan/ton (some increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton); in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, eastern China, the price of some large manufacturers was around 1,250 - 1,280 yuan/ton. [14][18] - The spot price changed little, but the futures price dropped more, and the basis strengthened. The profit of petroleum coke was about - 1.77 yuan/ton, and the profits of natural gas and coal - fired fuels were about - 72 and 78 yuan/ton respectively. [19][22] Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The recent market transactions have started to weaken, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 12.5 - 13 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels was 19.5 - 20 yuan/square meter, both unchanged month - on - month. [40][42] Capacity and Inventory - The market transactions have started to weaken, and the inventory is expected to increase seasonally later. There were 406 photovoltaic glass production lines in production in China, with a total daily melting volume of 87,000 tons per day, a 1.36% decrease month - on - month and an 11.64% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory days were about 24.06 days, a 6.43% increase month - on - month. [44][49][53] Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants had phased maintenance and reduced production. The overall maintenance volume in the fourth quarter is generally low. The capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 85.6%, down from 86.9% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash was about 414,800 tons per week. [59][61] Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 12,200 tons (0.72% increase) from last week. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 814,600 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons month - on - month; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 899,600 tons, an increase of 13,200 tons month - on - month. [64][66] Price and Profit - The low - end price in Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were around 1,155 - 1,400 yuan/ton. The enterprise quotations changed little. The profit of the combined - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 174 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method in North China was - 43 yuan/ton. [76][77][84]