铜产业链周度报告-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The logic of tight copper supply has weakened, but the long - term consumption logic remains strong. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate, with a neutral strength - weakness analysis and a price range of 83000 - 88000 yuan/ton [3]. - Macro factors provide support, and there is a game between micro - reality and expectations. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate. In terms of spread trading, although the loss of spot imports has narrowed, domestic inventories have increased significantly, so hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage positions with caution [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of SHFE, INE, and LME copper has declined, while that of COMEX copper has increased. The LME copper price volatility is around 16%, with a slight decline from the previous week, and the SHFE copper volatility is about 21%, with a relatively large decline from the previous week [9]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened, and the LME copper spot discount has widened. The SHFE 11 - 12 spread on November 7 was - 20 yuan/ton, lower than 20 yuan/ton on October 31; the LME 0 - 3 discount on November 7 was 18.22 US dollars/ton, lower than 14.44 US dollars/ton on October 31; the COMEX near - end C structure has expanded [11]. - Position: The positions of LME, SHFE, and COMEX copper have decreased. Among them, the SHFE copper position has decreased by 39,000 lots, to 554,400 lots [12]. - Fund and Industry Position: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has increased from 74,400 lots on October 24 to 78,200 lots on October 31; the net long position of CFTC non - commercial enterprises has decreased from 30,300 lots on September 16 to 30,200 lots on September 23 [17]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has strengthened, rising from par on October 31 to 40 yuan/ton on November 7. The Yangshan Port copper premium has declined, from 36 US dollars/ton on October 31 to 35 US dollars/ton on November 7, at a historically low level. The US copper premium has remained at a high level, the Rotterdam copper premium has been maintained at 145 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has declined from 135 US dollars/ton on October 31 to 127.5 US dollars/ton on November 7 [22]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, from 719,200 tons on October 30 to 751,400 tons on November 6. The domestic social inventory has increased, from 182,600 tons on October 30 to 203,300 tons on November 6. The bonded - area inventory has remained stable at 81,200 tons. The COMEX inventory has increased, reaching a historically high level, from 355,700 short tons on October 30 to 369,400 short tons on November 7. The LME copper inventory has increased from 134,600 tons on October 31 to 135,900 tons on November 7 [28]. - Position - Inventory Ratio: The position - inventory ratio of LME copper has rebounded, while that of SHFE copper is at a historically low level. The position - inventory ratio of the SHFE 12 - contract has declined, indicating that the overseas spot tightness logic continues to strengthen [29]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrate has increased year - on - year. In September 2025, the import volume of copper ore and its concentrates in China was 2.587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.22%. The port inventory of copper concentrate has increased from 461,000 tons on October 31 to 498,000 tons on November 7. The processing fee of copper concentrate has remained weak, and the smelting loss has narrowed from 3,241 yuan/ton on October 31 to 3,234 yuan/ton on November 7 [34]. - Recycled Copper: The import of recycled copper has increased. In September, the import of recycled copper was 184,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.80%, and the domestic output of recycled copper was 97,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.85%. The refined - scrap spread of recycled copper has narrowed but is still above the break - even point, and the import loss of recycled copper has narrowed [35][40]. - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has decreased. In September, the import volume was 50,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.84%. In September, the blister copper processing fee was at a low level, with the southern processing fee at 700 yuan/ton and the import fee at 85 US dollars/ton [44]. - Refined Copper: The domestic refined copper output has increased year - on - year. In September, the output was 1.121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.62%, and the cumulative output from January to September was 10.0598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.22%. It is expected that the output in October will be 1.0825 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.72%. The import volume of refined copper has increased, with 334,300 tons imported in September, a year - on - year increase of 3.66%. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in China in October was 437,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.16%. The loss of copper spot imports has narrowed, from a loss of 678.78 yuan/ton on October 31 to 471.05 yuan/ton on November 7 [47]. 3.3 Demand End - 开工率: In October, the operating rates of copper tube and copper plate - strip - foil enterprises declined, reaching historically low levels. In the week of November 6, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises increased marginally [51]. - Profit: The copper rod processing fee has rebounded but is still at a historically low level. As of November 7, the processing fee for copper rods used in the power industry in East China was 510 yuan/ton, higher than 425 yuan/ton on November 31. The copper tube processing fee has declined, at a historically neutral level. On November 7, the 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes was 5,121 yuan/ton, lower than 5,140 yuan/ton on November 7. The processing fees of copper plate - strip and lithium - ion copper foil have remained stable at low levels [55]. - Raw Material Inventory: In October, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a historically low - to - neutral level, the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a historically low level, and the weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable has remained at a low level [56]. - Finished Product Inventory: In October, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a historically high level, the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a historically low level, and the weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable has decreased [59]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The domestic actual copper consumption has performed well. From January to September, the cumulative consumption was 12.0359 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.77%. From January to September, the apparent consumption was 1.4289 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.01%. Power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy industries are important supports for copper consumption. Among them, the growth rate of power grid investment has slowed down. From January to September, the cumulative power grid investment was 473.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.9%, but at a historically high level [65]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In September, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.567 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.48%. In September, the domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.617 million units, a year - on - year increase of 23.72% [67].