南华期货外汇（美元兑人民币）周报：美元兑人民币即期汇率震荡底部下移-20251109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 99 - 101. Its ability to firmly return above 100 depends on the US government's reopening negotiation deadline and the quality of economic data after reopening [1][19]. - This week, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to range from 7.10 to 7.15. Near the end of the year, it may show a "shifting down of the oscillation bottom" trend, with a low probability of significant one - sided depreciation [1][19]. - There's no need to over - worry about the decline in China's import and export data in October. The trade data has short - term "noise", and the export data in October is a replenishment for the high growth in September. The export growth rate may decline in the fourth quarter, but the annual foreign trade is expected to end smoothly [1][19][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - US Market: The adjustment of US stocks was triggered by warnings from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley at a summit. The US government shutdown affected data release. ADP employment in October exceeded expectations, but the labor market is under pressure. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut fluctuated, and the US dollar index lost the 100 mark and then rebounded and fell [2][5]. - European and UK Markets: The Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.0%, with a 5 - 4 vote split. High inflation in the UK restricted interest - rate cuts. Sweden and Norway also maintained their policies [6]. - Japanese Market: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting indicated that the pre - conditions for restarting interest - rate hikes were gradually being met, strengthening the market's expectation of a policy shift and causing fluctuations in the Japanese bond market [6]. - As of November 7, 16:30, the US dollar index depreciated, the on - shore and off - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, while the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound appreciated against the US dollar [7]. 3.1.2 Weekly Review of USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate - Last week, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate showed an inverted V - shape, fluctuating within the 7.10 - 7.14 range as predicted [15]. 3.1.3 Market Outlook - The short - term trend of the US dollar index and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is as mentioned in the core viewpoints. There's no need to over - worry about the decline in China's import and export data in October [19][21]. 3.2 RMB Market Observation 3.2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.0836, depreciating 44 basis points. The counter - cyclical factor shows that the central bank aims to stabilize the exchange rate [23]. 3.2.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - Enterprise Sector Expectations: In September 2025, China's foreign exchange market was stable. Cross - border capital flows were active and balanced, and foreign exchange supply and demand were relatively balanced. There was a small net outflow in September due to the holiday, which turned into an inflow in October [26][27]. - Overseas Investor Expectations: As of last Friday, the depreciation sentiment of overseas investors towards the RMB slightly declined [31]. - Professional Investor Expectations: The 1 - year NDF closing price of the USD/CNH rose. In the short - to - medium term, the market's sentiment towards RMB appreciation and depreciation changed little, while the long - term appreciation sentiment increased [33]. 3.2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - Hong Kong RMB Futures Market: Relevant figures show the trading situation of the Hong Kong Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract [36]. - Singapore RMB Futures Market: Figures present the trading situation of the Singapore Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract and the basis difference with the Hong Kong Exchange [43]. 3.3 Key Data and Events to Focus On 3.3.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - China: The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 200 billion yuan. Service trade imports and exports increased in the first three quarters. China announced measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations. Some export control measures were suspended, and some US entities' trade qualifications were restored. In October, foreign trade maintained growth, and foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves increased [47][48]. - US: The number of corporate layoffs reached a high level since 2020. The ISM manufacturing PMI in October was in contraction, ADP employment exceeded expectations, the ISM services PMI reached a new high, and consumer confidence was at a low level [49][50]. - UK: No significant events [51]. - Eurozone: The manufacturing PMI in October was 50, and the services PMI drove the composite PMI to a new high. Germany's service industry recovered strongly, while France's was in contraction [51]. - Japan: Nominal wages increased in September, supporting the Bank of Japan's tightening policy [52]. - Others: South Korea's CPI accelerated in October, which may lead to the central bank continuing to suspend interest - rate cuts [53]. 3.3.2 One - Week Global Central Bank Key Statements Summary - China's Central Bank: No relevant statements [54]. - Federal Reserve: Different Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the December decision [54][55]. - Bank of Japan: The prime minister hoped for appropriate policies, and the meeting minutes showed a cautious attitude towards interest - rate hikes [56]. - European Central Bank: Officials believed there was no reason to adjust borrowing costs but remained vigilant about inflation [57]. - Bank of England: The bank kept the interest rate at 4%, with internal differences intensifying and increasing the expectation of a December interest - rate cut [58]. - Others: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the key interest rate unchanged and warned of inflation pressure [59]. 3.3.3 Key Financial and Economic Data and Events to Focus on This Week - A series of important economic data from different regions such as the UK unemployment rate, China's M2 money supply, and the US CPI are to be released this week [60]. 3.4 International Market Conditions 3.4.1 Major Countries' Exchange Rate Conditions - Figures show the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against major currencies such as the euro, yen, and pound [62][64][68]. 3.4.2 Correlation of Major Asset Classes - Figures display the trends of assets such as London gold, VIX, WTI crude oil, and the S&P 500 index [83][84][87]. 3.4.3 Capital Situation - Figures present the central bank's open - market operations, Shibor, and SOFR quotes [92][94]. 3.4.4 China - US Interest Rate Spread - Figures show the trends of the China - US interest rate spread and the yields of 10 - year Chinese and US Treasury bonds [96][97]. 3.4.5 RMB Exchange Rate Index - Figures show the trends of the CFETS, BIS, and SDR RMB exchange rate indices [100]. 3.4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - Figures show the monthly value of the global economic and trade friction index and the year - on - year and month - on - month changes in the amount involved in relevant measures [102][104].