2025年10月进出口数据点评：基数扰动下的出口增速波动

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's exports have been consistently exceeding expectations due to the high cost - effectiveness of Chinese goods, a result of domestic "involution" and technological progress. Even after "anti - involution", China's price advantage is expected to last a long time because other countries' price increases are much faster than China's [6]. - There is no situation where exports will decline after the end of "rush - exports". The so - called "rush - exports" and "rush - imports" ended in April, but China's exports did not decline after that [5][6]. - The year - on - year decline in exports in October was mainly due to the base misalignment in September and October 2024. Trade frictions may have also affected the export rhythm in October. The key is to observe the high - frequency export data in November [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event Overview - According to the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, in US dollars, China's imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year (previous value +7.4%), decreased by 9.6% month - on - month (+8.5%); exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year (+8.3%), decreased by 7.1% month - on - month (+2.1%); the trade surplus decreased by 5.9% year - on - year (+10.6%), decreased by 0.4% month - on - month (-11.6%). Exports had their first year - on - year negative growth since March 2025 [3]. Possible Reasons for the First Negative Growth of Exports since March 2025 - Base factor: Exports have obvious seasonal patterns. In 2024, September and October's data deviated from the seasonal pattern, while in 2025, it conformed. As a result, the base in September 2025 was extremely low, and in October 2025, it was extremely high, leading to a high year - on - year export growth rate of 8.3% in September 2025 and a low rate of - 1.1% in October 2025 [3]. - Tariff interference: Fewer working days in October, combined with tightened manufacturing exports due to unclear Sino - US negotiation results and the threat of 100% tariffs in trade frictions, may have interfered with October's exports. High - frequency export data was weak in mid - October but rebounded significantly in late October. If the high - frequency data in November is similar to that in late October, subsequent exports will still be strong [4]. - "Rush - exports end, exports will decline" is a false proposition: The US "rush - imports" ended in April. Since then, US imports have dropped significantly to 2024 levels. However, China's exports have not declined since April, indicating that this narrative may be wrong [5]. Bond Market Viewpoint - In the context of economic expectation correction, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. For stock and bond allocation, the report maintains its previous view [7].